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So The International 5 presumably has 10 invites this year (according to the compendium).
The distribution as I see it:
4 European Invites 4 Chinese 1 South-East Asian 1 America
Europe:
Invitees:
Team Secret Cloud 9 Empire Ninjas In Pajamas (or Virtus.Pro / HellRaisers / Natus Vincere / Alliance )
Team Secret and Cloud 9 are the clear favorites for this region, with Empire bringing up the rear after a 1st place finish at Starladder XI, and a 2nd at Major All Stars against Invictus Gaming.
The (presumably) final pick for the European Region is a tough choice, however. You have the remnants of Virtus.Pro/Asus.Polar, with 3 2nd place finishes in premium tournaments this past year. Or do you go with Hellraisers, whom managed to qualify for both the Dota 2 Asian Championships as well as Starladder XI, but had very poor finishes at both LAN events.
Ninjas in Pajamas? They managed confident 3rd place finishes at both SL XI and Major All Stars, but had a poor showing at i-League (where they had just unveiled their sponsorship) and haven't managed to break through to any major events since.
And finally, the old guard, Natus Vincere and Alliance. Both have really turned up the heat quite recently in leagues and qualifiers, though they have spent much of the last year completely void of results (Na`vi replaced iG/CDEC at SL XI but went out early to MVP Phoenix, and also managed to qualify for DAC where they did well in the wildcard, and i'd imagine far better than anyone expected in the group stage, but dropped out soon after in the playoffs).
China:
Invitees:
Vici Gaming LGD Gaming Invictus Gaming Newbee (or EHOME)
I think China is one of the easier regions to work through, and yet there's some mystery behind it also - specifically concerning Newbee. As The International 2014 winners, do they deserve an invite based on previous traditions? (As I was thinking about this, maybe there is no tradition, maybe 'Winners of the International 201X' was just listed under previously invited teams as a tribute) Personally, I don't feel Newbee deserve an invitation to the event, after being invited to DAC where they went 2-13 in a humiliating group stage and dropping out of VP ProGame playoffs to one of their own academy/amateur squads with the only decent result I can see lately being making it to the finals of the Chinese ESL One Frankfurt qualifier.
If I wasn't to invite Newbee however, and China still had 4 invite slots, I would place my bets on EHOME being the next best choice. The rOtk-led squad didn't fare too well at DAC, yet I think they have a better chance of qualifying for the next few Chinese events (WCA, i-League, ECL) between now and August.
Similarly, you have teams sitting on the fringe of success, such as HGT, CDEC and Tongfu, who always seem just an inch away from making it.
South East Asia:
Invitees:
:ph Rave (or Team Malaysia)
SEA certainly has a few contenders, and should be a good qualifier to watch - but ultimately I think Team Malaysia have too much star-power and recent results to give the slot to anyone else. That being said, i'm personally not sure whether I feel that this iteration of Team Malaysia has been around for long enough to consider for an invite. You have teams like Rave or MVP Phoenix, who (prior to Team MY) always seemed capable of pulling through qualifiers only to underperform at LAN events. Then you have another bunch of teams who, similar to the Chinese scene, can take matches off top opponents but never seem to be quite capable of making over through the final hurdle (which in some cases appears to be obtaining a passport/visa).
Americas:
Invitees:
Evil Geniuses
* Drops the mic *
I think the America's region right now is as strong as it's ever been, and yet there stands a monolith, rising above all the other teams ready to crush others dreams of attending LAN events - Evil Geniuses. This invite can't be contested but what if America was to be granted two slots? In that case, I feel there are only two teams worthy of taking the spot, Team Tinker and Not Today. While Team Tinker most recently imported Black^, and did okay at the just gone Starladder XII, it's hard to see them receiving an invite. With Not Today, it's the same, and yet as we can see at The Summit 3, the voice of South America is loud and large.
I don't know why I wrote all this.
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Northern Ireland22201 Posts
i think i agree with the distribution. calling that last slot for europe will be tough. i'm assuming with the predictions closing in 4 days, the invites will also be announced then. i think i would put VP in there.
i also see ehome instead of newbee for china
agreed with malaysia over rave
and there is only one EG tier team for america
gotta get those valuable compendium points
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I think top 1-2 Newbee and Vici will get a place automatically by being top 2 last TI. Then the rest should be China 3 spots, Europe 3 spots, America one and SEA one spot.
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For me it should be 3 West(c9/eg/secret) , 4 china (lgd/vg/ig/ehome) and 1 sea (rave/MY ) put everyone on qualifiers.
8 teams pass through the qualifiers
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Northern Ireland22201 Posts
On May 01 2015 20:06 goody153 wrote: For me it should be 3 West(c9/eg/secret) , 4 china (lgd/vg/ig/ehome) and 1 sea (rave/MY ) put everyone on qualifiers.
8 teams pass through the qualifiers except that the compendium confirmed that there will be 10 invited teams
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On May 01 2015 21:51 ahswtini wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2015 20:06 goody153 wrote: For me it should be 3 West(c9/eg/secret) , 4 china (lgd/vg/ig/ehome) and 1 sea (rave/MY ) put everyone on qualifiers.
8 teams pass through the qualifiers except that the compendium confirmed that there will be 10 invited teams i know i know
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On May 01 2015 22:26 goody153 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2015 21:51 ahswtini wrote:On May 01 2015 20:06 goody153 wrote: For me it should be 3 West(c9/eg/secret) , 4 china (lgd/vg/ig/ehome) and 1 sea (rave/MY ) put everyone on qualifiers.
8 teams pass through the qualifiers except that the compendium confirmed that there will be 10 invited teams i know i know It's guaranteed that it's a 16-team tournament no matter what, right?
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eg secret c9 empire tm vg ig lgd nb and i guess vp
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VG and IG are obvious for China. But I'm not sold on a Newbee invite. Winning TI and then arguably becoming one of the worst teams in the world.... I don't think that warrants an invite frankly.
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i have a weird feeling that valve may copy the summit and do a redemption vote thing...
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Enjoyed having the option to do this in compendium! Here are my predictions, going on the baseless assumption that Valve will try and get an even spread of invites across the globe.
3 China - Vici, IG, LGD 3 Europe - Secret, C9, Hellraisers 2 SEA - Rave, Team Malaysia 2 NA - EG, Not Today
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I made eactly the same predictions as the op. I went with NaVi for the last EU-invite, just because Dendi has the overwhelming star-/sympathy factor. What is also interesting, is the distribution of qualifier slots: 1 for each region + 2 wildcards (with 1,2 or a different number of teams per region competeing for it)? Maybe china or EU gets just 3 invites, but 2 qualifying slots? Maybe just 2 qualifiers, with 3 slots for EU+Americas and 3 for china+SEA?
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i don't think navi's getting a direct invite just cuz of the absurd amount of shuffling. alliance shouldn't get one either, they haven't shuffled as much lately but i don't think this last minute return of the bullrat is gonna look good to icefrog. the last euro spot is gonna be a battle of vp's good play and some respectable results against nip's good start but shaky ending. i think vp has that one, nip's had some really questionable decision making and throws lately, even by a c9 fan's standards. plus vp still has esl to prove themselves, nip doesn't have any big lans left to play before ti afaik. finally, sea... i think the invite should go to rave, i think they're good enough and have been working/playing together for longer than this version of MY has. but my has the star power so who knows. i don't think hr has any chance at a direct invite at this point.
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Thx man. I hope you are right.
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On May 02 2015 02:50 DropBear wrote: Enjoyed having the option to do this in compendium! Here are my predictions, going on the baseless assumption that Valve will try and get an even spread of invites across the globe.
3 China - Vici, IG, LGD 3 Europe - Secret, C9, Hellraisers 2 SEA - Rave, Team Malaysia 2 NA - EG, Not Today
I will eat a shoe if NT get an invite. If there was an NA tourney right now, I don't think they'd get top 4.
Anyway, can't see your predictions happen at all S:
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Don't see Malaysia getting invited at the expense of Rave (If MY gets invited, it will be together with Rave)
Let's look at the things going for Rave: - They've won LANs (KDL, MPGL SEA) - Placed well in LANs (3rd at ileague, 5th/6th at DAC tied with C9) - They're the most stable TI5 direct invite candidate (same roster for more than a year by the TI5 comes) - They're the 6th richest Dota 2 team in winnings after TI5
Malaysia hasn't won or placed well in a LAN
Regarding fan bases: A lot of people are supporting MY because of the stars (Mushi, Ohaiyo) A lot of people are supporting Rave because of the work horse team attitude
TLDR: Rave gets the direct invite based on merit and stability. MY gets invited if Valve gives SEA 2 slots.
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NiP is the more consistent and stable team out of the choices. I would also pick Rave over Team Malaysia for stability and results. Remember that Valve values roster stability
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I don't see why Malaysia should be invited over rave. It takes away the consistent progress that rave has made throughout the year, just because and all star team appeared nearer to ti and had better results. I mean its not like rave performed poorly. It sets a precedent that valve does not bother with teams that work hard and get good results, just because some short term all star team appeared.
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Rave will be better choice over Team My. They have proven their worth during DAC . I feel rave have really strong mechanic grasp on the game. Despite instant nerf to their exploit, they still managed to get top 5 in DAC.
Team My still has not yet proven their worth as a team. If only they stay together as Ehome i wouldn't doubt a single second they will be invited but as of now it's tough choice between the two. Mvp.phoenix should have been invited imo just because they represent korea but if they aren't, i wouldn't be surprised either. Newbee shouldn't be in the list, they have really bad records to get direct invite after TI4.
If the invites somehow doesn't follow 5 east and 5 west. Team tinker will get invited because they are seems to be more solid team with okay result.
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Lets be honest here, between Rave and Malaysia it makes no doubt that Malaysia is the better team. With that logic maybe Valve should invite me and my 4 bros because we played together for a couple years and have been steadily improving. I mean sure we aren't as good as some other TI Invite contenders but we have "stability" right ?
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On May 02 2015 16:55 PagePincher wrote: Rave will be better choice over Team My. They have proven their worth during DAC . I feel rave have really strong mechanic grasp on the game. Despite instant nerf to their exploit, they still managed to get top 5 in DAC.
Team My still has not yet proven their worth as a team. If only they stay together as Ehome i wouldn't doubt a single second they will be invited but as of now it's tough choice between the two. Mvp.phoenix should have been invited imo just because they represent korea but if they aren't, i wouldn't be surprised either. Newbee shouldn't be in the list, they have really bad records to get direct invite after TI4.
If the invites somehow doesn't follow 5 east and 5 west. Team tinker will get invited because they are seems to be more solid team with okay result.
inviting someone who represents a dead scene to the biggest dota event so we can have another MUFC ?
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Cascadia1753 Posts
I feel like the easiest solution is give SEA the 4th EU spot, and invite rave and my.
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The fourth EU invite could probably wipe the floor with MY and Rave though : S
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I would pick Rave over Team Malaysia.Not the fact that my favorite is Rave, but statistically speaking Rave has a better 2015 then Team Malaysia. Placing 5th/6th in DAC, Qualified for The Summit and lastly having a much more stable roster.
But If Team Malaysia is picked over Rave it would be a stab to chest for Rave, and it would mean that the team with an ALL STAR is BETTER than a team that strive hard and OUT WIT THE EXPECTATIONS OF MANY PEOPLE.
And That's a Fact!
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On May 03 2015 02:47 Tephus wrote: I feel like the easiest solution is give SEA the 4th EU spot, and invite rave and my. Now that would be cool considering that TEAM MY and Rave are Worth it to be in TI5.. :3
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On May 03 2015 02:04 SpiZe wrote: Lets be honest here, between Rave and Malaysia it makes no doubt that Malaysia is the better team. With that logic maybe Valve should invite me and my 4 bros because we played together for a couple years and have been steadily improving. I mean sure we aren't as good as some other TI Invite contenders but we have "stability" right ?
That's not really the point I'm making. It is that rave has shown very credible results throughout the year, being undisputed #1 SEA until an all star teams forms out of nowhere and took its spot. It is not like rave is a terrible team. It is also not like MY has had brilliant results.
To put it in your 'logic', valve should invite you and your bros if you guys have been the best team in SEA for most of the year, with good performances in international tournaments, even though your team is weaker than a certain Malaysian all star team.
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On May 03 2015 03:10 DucK- wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2015 02:04 SpiZe wrote: Lets be honest here, between Rave and Malaysia it makes no doubt that Malaysia is the better team. With that logic maybe Valve should invite me and my 4 bros because we played together for a couple years and have been steadily improving. I mean sure we aren't as good as some other TI Invite contenders but we have "stability" right ? That's not really the point I'm making. It is that rave has shown very credible results throughout the year, being undisputed #1 SEA until an all star teams forms out of nowhere and took its spot. It is not like rave is a terrible team. It is also not like MY has had brilliant results. Asking Question Here .. Would you pick a star studded team<MY> over a well rounded team<Rave>??
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On May 03 2015 03:16 Katrizz wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2015 03:10 DucK- wrote:On May 03 2015 02:04 SpiZe wrote: Lets be honest here, between Rave and Malaysia it makes no doubt that Malaysia is the better team. With that logic maybe Valve should invite me and my 4 bros because we played together for a couple years and have been steadily improving. I mean sure we aren't as good as some other TI Invite contenders but we have "stability" right ? That's not really the point I'm making. It is that rave has shown very credible results throughout the year, being undisputed #1 SEA until an all star teams forms out of nowhere and took its spot. It is not like rave is a terrible team. It is also not like MY has had brilliant results. Asking Question Here .. Would you pick a star studded team<MY> over a well rounded team<Rave>??
Depends. I prefer to reward effort and results, both of which rave has shown. I think the onus is on the star studded team to make themselves hard to be ignored in the invite. I don't think MY has done enough yet, especially with that disappointing starladder run.
In an ideal case, I want both teams to be invited. Thing is aside from them, there's no other teams in SEA worthy enough to be in TI. So I don't want to have a SEA qualifier for the rest of SEA. It is a waste of a spot.
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On May 03 2015 03:10 DucK- wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2015 02:04 SpiZe wrote: Lets be honest here, between Rave and Malaysia it makes no doubt that Malaysia is the better team. With that logic maybe Valve should invite me and my 4 bros because we played together for a couple years and have been steadily improving. I mean sure we aren't as good as some other TI Invite contenders but we have "stability" right ? That's not really the point I'm making. It is that rave has shown very credible results throughout the year, being undisputed #1 SEA until an all star teams forms out of nowhere and took its spot. It is not like rave is a terrible team. It is also not like MY has had brilliant results. To put it in your 'logic', valve should invite you and your bros if you guys have been the best team in SEA for most of the year, with good performances in international tournaments, even though your team is weaker than a certain Malaysian all star team.
Fair enough, our difference of opinion lies in your last sentence I guess. It's two different ways to see the situation.
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United States13143 Posts
People don't seem to realize that Newbee was actually very good in the second half of 2014; they won 4 tournaments. Their poor performance at DAC was actually a huge surprise. I realize that some people may put more weight on recent results than me, but I think Newbee's resume is strong enough to get a direct invite purely on their achievements in the second half of 2014, even ignoring their TI4 victory.
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On May 03 2015 06:06 Elyvilon wrote: People don't seem to realize that Newbee was actually very good in the second half of 2014; they won 4 tournaments. Their poor performance at DAC was actually a huge surprise. I realize that some people may put more weight on recent results than me, but I think Newbee's resume is strong enough to get a direct invite purely on their achievements in the second half of 2014, even ignoring their TI4 victory.
Newbee sucks ass now, sure they won a couple tournaments after TI, then they sucked ass. They lost to everyone. Name a team I'm pretty sure Newbee as lost to them. Sadly TI5 isn't set to be played in the second half of 2014
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In the world of Dota, only the last 2 months of performance indicates anything.
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Thinking over it more I agree with many of you that Rave are more likely to get the invite over Team Malaysia and have amended my original post as such.
Still unsure about Newbee vs EHOME/Others though
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In my predictions I have Newbee getting an invite. As Elyvilon said, they still had several tournament wins after TI4. Of course they bombed out of DAC, lost Hao, and are not looking on par with VG, iG or LGD at the moment. But the problem for me is which Chinese team would you invite over them? EHOME is a new lineup and they have no really convincing results, HGT and CDEC have been around but I don't think their tournament results are that convincing either. So if there is going to be a 4th Chinese invite, I think Newbee's results from late 2014 and their status as the defending champions puts them there.
Though if I would decide I wouldn't mind it if Valve gave just 3 Chinese invites and for example 2 direct spots to TI for the qualifier. Similarly I think deciding on the next European teams after Secret, c9 and Empire is difficult enough that I think they could only invite those 3 and instead put 2 direct spots for the qualifier. Now in my predictions I have VP getting the 4th invite, but the difference from them to NiP for example isn't all that big.
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Rave's lack of participation in recent events complicates it too.
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I hope Icefrog/Valve don't go full nuts and invite Team Tinker. Mediocre results, shuffling roster, and moving to a weak region only to continue to have mediocre results do not a direct invite to TI make.
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I want rave to be invited so i can party with my pinoy friends.
I think malaysia is probably more likely tho, they have a lot of big names and have been playing more lately than rave. if there's an sea qualifier the non-invited team is gonna be the obvious favorite, so it's not all bad. same thing goes for china region
eu region is very wide open for the 4th slot tho. if i had to guess it would be vp so there would be at least 1 cis team going to TI
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Empire already is a CIS team. But VP seems like the 4th most deserving team from EU/CIS region anyway, I'm relatively confident they will be invited and NiP has to go through qualifiers.
Concerning TT, I don't think there's any chance they get invited. From EU/CIS all the teams that will get invited are more deserving than Tinker, and I don't think they have even had the time to clearly establish themselves as the #2 in NA. If an NA team is around all year and show that they are clearly #2 in the region, I could understand inviting them even if their international results wouldn't be that great. It can be hard to get to many big events because EG is always there in front. But this isn't the case for TT, they were only formed relatively recently, and they haven't played enough competitive tournaments to show that they really deserve it.
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with no Liquid team for TI, id fucking root for Rave even if it will cost me my life (anime style).
It really is no contest, they are the true SEA reps this year.
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Cascadia1753 Posts
Lots of pros/caster seem to be in agreement in predicting invites for both MY and rave over that last EU spot.
Just seems to be the most reasonable way to do it. Cant really make a convincing argument that any of hr/nip/A or whoever else definitely deserve it over eachother, whereas lots of people are debating MY vs rave.
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On May 05 2015 02:07 Tephus wrote: Lots of pros/caster seem to be in agreement in predicting invites for both MY and rave over that last EU spot.
Just seems to be the most reasonable way to do it. Cant really make a convincing argument that any of hr/nip/A or whoever else definitely deserve it over eachother, whereas lots of people are debating MY vs rave.
vp definately deserves it and with my and rave there would be 3 (4 with the wildcard spot) sea teams which would be too much for a scene that is thatweak. i mean team malaysia lost to team tinker at starladder, its not very clear how strong they actually are.
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On May 04 2015 18:33 spudde123 wrote: Empire already is a CIS team. But VP seems like the 4th most deserving team from EU/CIS region anyway, I'm relatively confident they will be invited and NiP has to go through qualifiers.
Concerning TT, I don't think there's any chance they get invited. From EU/CIS all the teams that will get invited are more deserving than Tinker, and I don't think they have even had the time to clearly establish themselves as the #2 in NA. If an NA team is around all year and show that they are clearly #2 in the region, I could understand inviting them even if their international results wouldn't be that great. It can be hard to get to many big events because EG is always there in front. But this isn't the case for TT, they were only formed relatively recently, and they haven't played enough competitive tournaments to show that they really deserve it.
Lol yes, Empire is a CIS team, shoutouts to shitty memory. Somehow I forgot. Anyway I agree with you on both the VP and TT points.
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My final predictions:
Americas - EG Europe - C9, Secret, Empire, Virtus Pro China - iG, VG, LGD SEA - Rave, Team Malaysia
Switch out team Malaysia with Newbee if you give a defending champion's edge, but that's the only slot I think it open right now. I don't think that China's teams outside of the big 3 have shown enough to deserve a direct invite to TI5. China's actually a fairly weak region this year beyond the top 3, of which any of them could win the whole thing.
This invite breakdown keeps the 5 West / 5 East breakdown as well, which is nice.
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Predictions:
Americas - EG Europe - C9, Secret, Empire, Alliance (or VP) China - IG, VG, Newbee ( they won last year ), and EHOME (or LGD) SEA - Team Malaysia
Qualifier Winners:
Americas: TT Europe: NiP China: LGD (or EHOME depending on which doesnt get invited) SEA: Rave
NO WAY, will valve invite two Americas teams and two SEA teams, they are on different levels from Europe and China (Sorry Rave and Team Malaysia Fans - Sorry EG and TT fans)
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You let me down guys, my original predictions (pre-edit) were correct.
Pls send compendium points
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