|
So The International 5 presumably has 10 invites this year (according to the compendium).
The distribution as I see it:
4 European Invites 4 Chinese 1 South-East Asian 1 America
Europe:
Invitees:
Team Secret Cloud 9 Empire Ninjas In Pajamas (or Virtus.Pro / HellRaisers / Natus Vincere / Alliance )
Team Secret and Cloud 9 are the clear favorites for this region, with Empire bringing up the rear after a 1st place finish at Starladder XI, and a 2nd at Major All Stars against Invictus Gaming.
The (presumably) final pick for the European Region is a tough choice, however. You have the remnants of Virtus.Pro/Asus.Polar, with 3 2nd place finishes in premium tournaments this past year. Or do you go with Hellraisers, whom managed to qualify for both the Dota 2 Asian Championships as well as Starladder XI, but had very poor finishes at both LAN events.
Ninjas in Pajamas? They managed confident 3rd place finishes at both SL XI and Major All Stars, but had a poor showing at i-League (where they had just unveiled their sponsorship) and haven't managed to break through to any major events since.
And finally, the old guard, Natus Vincere and Alliance. Both have really turned up the heat quite recently in leagues and qualifiers, though they have spent much of the last year completely void of results (Na`vi replaced iG/CDEC at SL XI but went out early to MVP Phoenix, and also managed to qualify for DAC where they did well in the wildcard, and i'd imagine far better than anyone expected in the group stage, but dropped out soon after in the playoffs).
China:
Invitees:
Vici Gaming LGD Gaming Invictus Gaming Newbee (or EHOME)
I think China is one of the easier regions to work through, and yet there's some mystery behind it also - specifically concerning Newbee. As The International 2014 winners, do they deserve an invite based on previous traditions? (As I was thinking about this, maybe there is no tradition, maybe 'Winners of the International 201X' was just listed under previously invited teams as a tribute) Personally, I don't feel Newbee deserve an invitation to the event, after being invited to DAC where they went 2-13 in a humiliating group stage and dropping out of VP ProGame playoffs to one of their own academy/amateur squads with the only decent result I can see lately being making it to the finals of the Chinese ESL One Frankfurt qualifier.
If I wasn't to invite Newbee however, and China still had 4 invite slots, I would place my bets on EHOME being the next best choice. The rOtk-led squad didn't fare too well at DAC, yet I think they have a better chance of qualifying for the next few Chinese events (WCA, i-League, ECL) between now and August.
Similarly, you have teams sitting on the fringe of success, such as HGT, CDEC and Tongfu, who always seem just an inch away from making it.
South East Asia:
Invitees:
:ph Rave (or Team Malaysia)
SEA certainly has a few contenders, and should be a good qualifier to watch - but ultimately I think Team Malaysia have too much star-power and recent results to give the slot to anyone else. That being said, i'm personally not sure whether I feel that this iteration of Team Malaysia has been around for long enough to consider for an invite. You have teams like Rave or MVP Phoenix, who (prior to Team MY) always seemed capable of pulling through qualifiers only to underperform at LAN events. Then you have another bunch of teams who, similar to the Chinese scene, can take matches off top opponents but never seem to be quite capable of making over through the final hurdle (which in some cases appears to be obtaining a passport/visa).
Americas:
Invitees:
Evil Geniuses
* Drops the mic *
I think the America's region right now is as strong as it's ever been, and yet there stands a monolith, rising above all the other teams ready to crush others dreams of attending LAN events - Evil Geniuses. This invite can't be contested but what if America was to be granted two slots? In that case, I feel there are only two teams worthy of taking the spot, Team Tinker and Not Today. While Team Tinker most recently imported Black^, and did okay at the just gone Starladder XII, it's hard to see them receiving an invite. With Not Today, it's the same, and yet as we can see at The Summit 3, the voice of South America is loud and large.
I don't know why I wrote all this.
|
Northern Ireland22201 Posts
i think i agree with the distribution. calling that last slot for europe will be tough. i'm assuming with the predictions closing in 4 days, the invites will also be announced then. i think i would put VP in there.
i also see ehome instead of newbee for china
agreed with malaysia over rave
and there is only one EG tier team for america
gotta get those valuable compendium points
|
I think top 1-2 Newbee and Vici will get a place automatically by being top 2 last TI. Then the rest should be China 3 spots, Europe 3 spots, America one and SEA one spot.
|
For me it should be 3 West(c9/eg/secret) , 4 china (lgd/vg/ig/ehome) and 1 sea (rave/MY ) put everyone on qualifiers.
8 teams pass through the qualifiers
|
Northern Ireland22201 Posts
On May 01 2015 20:06 goody153 wrote: For me it should be 3 West(c9/eg/secret) , 4 china (lgd/vg/ig/ehome) and 1 sea (rave/MY ) put everyone on qualifiers.
8 teams pass through the qualifiers except that the compendium confirmed that there will be 10 invited teams
|
On May 01 2015 21:51 ahswtini wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2015 20:06 goody153 wrote: For me it should be 3 West(c9/eg/secret) , 4 china (lgd/vg/ig/ehome) and 1 sea (rave/MY ) put everyone on qualifiers.
8 teams pass through the qualifiers except that the compendium confirmed that there will be 10 invited teams i know i know
|
On May 01 2015 22:26 goody153 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2015 21:51 ahswtini wrote:On May 01 2015 20:06 goody153 wrote: For me it should be 3 West(c9/eg/secret) , 4 china (lgd/vg/ig/ehome) and 1 sea (rave/MY ) put everyone on qualifiers.
8 teams pass through the qualifiers except that the compendium confirmed that there will be 10 invited teams i know i know It's guaranteed that it's a 16-team tournament no matter what, right?
|
eg secret c9 empire tm vg ig lgd nb and i guess vp
|
VG and IG are obvious for China. But I'm not sold on a Newbee invite. Winning TI and then arguably becoming one of the worst teams in the world.... I don't think that warrants an invite frankly.
|
i have a weird feeling that valve may copy the summit and do a redemption vote thing...
|
Enjoyed having the option to do this in compendium! Here are my predictions, going on the baseless assumption that Valve will try and get an even spread of invites across the globe.
3 China - Vici, IG, LGD 3 Europe - Secret, C9, Hellraisers 2 SEA - Rave, Team Malaysia 2 NA - EG, Not Today
|
I made eactly the same predictions as the op. I went with NaVi for the last EU-invite, just because Dendi has the overwhelming star-/sympathy factor. What is also interesting, is the distribution of qualifier slots: 1 for each region + 2 wildcards (with 1,2 or a different number of teams per region competeing for it)? Maybe china or EU gets just 3 invites, but 2 qualifying slots? Maybe just 2 qualifiers, with 3 slots for EU+Americas and 3 for china+SEA?
|
i don't think navi's getting a direct invite just cuz of the absurd amount of shuffling. alliance shouldn't get one either, they haven't shuffled as much lately but i don't think this last minute return of the bullrat is gonna look good to icefrog. the last euro spot is gonna be a battle of vp's good play and some respectable results against nip's good start but shaky ending. i think vp has that one, nip's had some really questionable decision making and throws lately, even by a c9 fan's standards. plus vp still has esl to prove themselves, nip doesn't have any big lans left to play before ti afaik. finally, sea... i think the invite should go to rave, i think they're good enough and have been working/playing together for longer than this version of MY has. but my has the star power so who knows. i don't think hr has any chance at a direct invite at this point.
|
Thx man. I hope you are right.
|
On May 02 2015 02:50 DropBear wrote: Enjoyed having the option to do this in compendium! Here are my predictions, going on the baseless assumption that Valve will try and get an even spread of invites across the globe.
3 China - Vici, IG, LGD 3 Europe - Secret, C9, Hellraisers 2 SEA - Rave, Team Malaysia 2 NA - EG, Not Today
I will eat a shoe if NT get an invite. If there was an NA tourney right now, I don't think they'd get top 4.
Anyway, can't see your predictions happen at all S:
|
Don't see Malaysia getting invited at the expense of Rave (If MY gets invited, it will be together with Rave)
Let's look at the things going for Rave: - They've won LANs (KDL, MPGL SEA) - Placed well in LANs (3rd at ileague, 5th/6th at DAC tied with C9) - They're the most stable TI5 direct invite candidate (same roster for more than a year by the TI5 comes) - They're the 6th richest Dota 2 team in winnings after TI5
Malaysia hasn't won or placed well in a LAN
Regarding fan bases: A lot of people are supporting MY because of the stars (Mushi, Ohaiyo) A lot of people are supporting Rave because of the work horse team attitude
TLDR: Rave gets the direct invite based on merit and stability. MY gets invited if Valve gives SEA 2 slots.
|
NiP is the more consistent and stable team out of the choices. I would also pick Rave over Team Malaysia for stability and results. Remember that Valve values roster stability
|
I don't see why Malaysia should be invited over rave. It takes away the consistent progress that rave has made throughout the year, just because and all star team appeared nearer to ti and had better results. I mean its not like rave performed poorly. It sets a precedent that valve does not bother with teams that work hard and get good results, just because some short term all star team appeared.
|
Rave will be better choice over Team My. They have proven their worth during DAC . I feel rave have really strong mechanic grasp on the game. Despite instant nerf to their exploit, they still managed to get top 5 in DAC.
Team My still has not yet proven their worth as a team. If only they stay together as Ehome i wouldn't doubt a single second they will be invited but as of now it's tough choice between the two. Mvp.phoenix should have been invited imo just because they represent korea but if they aren't, i wouldn't be surprised either. Newbee shouldn't be in the list, they have really bad records to get direct invite after TI4.
If the invites somehow doesn't follow 5 east and 5 west. Team tinker will get invited because they are seems to be more solid team with okay result.
|
Lets be honest here, between Rave and Malaysia it makes no doubt that Malaysia is the better team. With that logic maybe Valve should invite me and my 4 bros because we played together for a couple years and have been steadily improving. I mean sure we aren't as good as some other TI Invite contenders but we have "stability" right ?
|
|
|
|