My friend and I put together some resources and predictions for the daily fantasy challenge.
Our approach is the following: we calculated the average fantasy points for all 90 participant players based on the latest two DPC rounds plus the TI closed qualifiers. These raw points are then adjusted based on the team ratings in each and every match, to account for differences in opponent strength. This is necessary since there is a substantial difference in the points teams typically accrue versus weaker opponents compared to more even matchups. The team ratings are generated by a basic ML model and have quite good predictive power, 66-70% accuracy for match outcome, which is similar or slightly better than what most bookies have.
We then use these adjusted points to calculate the daily maximums based on the fixtures for any given day. The maximums are a combination of factors: 1) teams that play more matches and 2) teams that do well in more matches and 3) teams that tend to play longer games. Our daily predictions also take into account relative opponent strength.
We will be refreshing 3 basic pages on a daily basis:
Page 1: https://womboscout.com/fantasy-points-roster-of-the-day/
This page will display our actual recommendation for that given day. It will show the "main" recommendation - which is projected to give the maximum points and an "alternative" scenario - which gives less points but spreads them among more teams, so that you don't have all your Phoenix eggs in one basket.
Page 2: https://womboscout.com/fantasy-points-results-of-the-day/
This page will break down all of the daily matches, displaying the fantasy point averages before a match and the expected points resulting from that match, based on our win probabilities.
Page 3: https://womboscout.com/fantasy-points-players-averages/
This page will list the before and during TI point averages for all 90 players, raw and adjusted, in case you want to work out some different rosters yourselves.
Let me know please if you have any suggestions or spot some inconsistencies.
We will be refreshing the pages 1-2 hrs after the last match has ended.