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DreamLeague 11: VP vs LGD Analysis Game 1

Forum Index > The Tavern
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harodihg
Profile Joined November 2013
Japan1108 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-03-23 16:22:03
March 23 2019 16:19 GMT
#1
Preface


VP vs PSG.LGD was one of the seemingly closest matchups in this major with all three games lasting over 40 minutes and the final game resulting in a score of 25-23. Despite this, I'd like to put forth the argument that all three games were pretty thoroughly decided from the drafts alone.




https://www.dotabuff.com/matches/4564903836

[image loading]

On first glance alone it might appear to be an even draft, but in reality I'd say that it's a pretty strong 70-30 outdraft where LGD wins [70% chance LGD wins if both teams play well]. Now to break down what the reasoning is behind this and what lead this to being so.

In DotA you'll typically see a singular hero being a team's "game winning hero" which is often the hero that you'll want to be relatively uncountered as well as being strong against the enemy team's heroes. The team will put focus on enabling this hero and making sure that it has a strong game as their success largely relies on that hero having a good game and strong impact. In this game for LGD that's Spectre and for VP it's fairly split between Troll and Morph (with a bit more emphasis on Morph)

If you break down the draft order you'll see a very clear list of "let's pick X because it counters Y" from both sides. Such as:
  • Grimstroke hardcounters Pango
  • Pugna is strong against Grimstroke, Enigma, and Troll
  • Bane supplies LGD with a means to cancel black hole
  • Ursa is strong against Doom and renders him unable to lane should they be laning against one another
  • Spectre hardcounters Enigma, Grimstroke, and Doom.
  • Troll is strong against Pango and Ursa
  • Morphling is strong against Spectre


You'll notice I used varying terms between hardcounter and 'is strong', this was purposeful. What inevitably happened this game was LGD managed to make it out of the draft with their centerpiece being relatively uncountered while also being a hardcounter to 3/5 of VP's lineup resulting in a fairly clean-cut victory for LGD despite the score, networth, or even overall game appearance seeming even because when push comes to shove Spectre would steamroll them in any fight.

Why is LGD's teamfight so much stronger despite the counters listed and how does Spectre play into this?

The two focal points of what makes LGD so favored are vision and mobility. Spectre counters heroes that are simply immobile and unable to escape the illusion as well as any chasing enemies that are following up during haunt. The threat of playing against Spectre isn't just what lies on the surface, it's the fact that her Desolate reduces vision of enemies by 70% making followup advances from her allies that much more uncountered and potent. For instance, Grimstroke being a counter for Pangolier is reliant upon him landing Soulbind on Pango during his roll to stop him from advancing or Phantom Embrace on him before he starts, but with reduced vision he's all but helpless to actually get his spells off before he's cut down thus giving Pango free roam during a teamfight. Enigma is also particularly susceptible as he's often viewed as a strong counter-initiator with the threat of a blackhole, but Spectre causing so much chaos in a fight and being able to simply instantly get on top of Enigma cancelling his blink or any chance at gaining good positioning he's essentially nullified. These two major components alone let LGD simply wipe half of VP during any given teamfight before picking away at the not-so-mobile Doom and Troll that remain, before finally bringing down the Morph.

+ Show Spoiler +
Might continue with this for games two and three as there's other comparable observations to be made regarding those drafts, but I'm extremely tired right now and leaving this as is.

Fun fact: Doom, Spectre, Enigma, Pugna, and Disruptor were in 2 out of the 3 games.


Hope you enjoyed the read as well as the Major thus far.
Agh's ult sniper: Sniper locks eyes with target unit, immobilizing them in horror as he turns the gun on himself. Channeled, lasts 5 seconds.
Julmust
Profile Joined November 2008
Sweden2334 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-03-26 12:23:54
March 26 2019 12:22 GMT
#2
Hey, this is some good stuff. Some quick feedback: would you mind expanding on the hardcounters/is strong against list? You kind of did further down but I'd love to read more about the synergies (as I'm a shitty player and often miss/don't understand these things)

Also, if you're interested in making this a featured article, hit me up. I'd definitely be happy to have it on the FP, with a few tweaks!
AdministratorI'm dancing in the moonlight
Dirkzor
Profile Joined June 2011
Denmark308 Posts
March 27 2019 02:21 GMT
#3
That was interesting. Drafts usually go over my head - most of it anyway.
Prediction contest G.O.A.T (4 wins and counting)🥇🥇🥇🥇"HOW THE FUCK ARE YOU ON TOP AGAIN???? HOW DO YOU KEEP DOING THIS????" -Julmust (also, thats what she said)
harodihg
Profile Joined November 2013
Japan1108 Posts
March 27 2019 14:24 GMT
#4
Thanks for the comments, glad you enjoyed it!

And yeah I could expand but those could run into entire articles themselves - I'll try to keep it really plain and simple but when reading just bear with me that it goes WELL beyond just this and that the intricacies aren't exactly listed.

Grimstroke hardcounters Pango

*grim has a targetable silence from high range and his ult also completely stops pango from going anywhere during roll. Not to mention in lane Ink swell lets many carries play aggressively if not outright kill Pango.

Spectre hardcounters Enigma, Grimstroke, and Doom.

*Spectre typically always loses lane much like TB so when you pick it you need to be prepared for that - but if you DO have other heroes/lanes that can sustain losing that lane it's fine. The problem arises when Spectre faces a hero that either has kill potential or can run him down in the jungle. Enigma is a hero that always wins lane but has no real kill potential or run-down potential vs a Spectre. So with that in mind it's essentially just accepting what's happening and playing towards what you can get. Enigma is also EXTREMELY immobile and only really interacts in teamfights with one of two builds: Greaves/pipe/etc. or blink bkb. Spectre counters most blink initiators as haunt cancels blink, but also her vision reduction stops Enigma from effectively being able to walk in and counter-initiate. Her ult also spreads out the teamfight and does massive damage to immobile heroes. With all that in mind Enigma will essentially almost never get a "good" blackhole off and will just be running around pretty uselessly. The same goes for Grimstroke and Doom.

The only real play for an Enigma vs Spectre is to try and get a HoD and early Greaves and try to push down every tower early before Spectre gets farmed. But teams being aware of what Spec does to their lineup, they'll typically have contingency plans in their draft to be able to hold if not fight back.
Agh's ult sniper: Sniper locks eyes with target unit, immobilizing them in horror as he turns the gun on himself. Channeled, lasts 5 seconds.
harodihg
Profile Joined November 2013
Japan1108 Posts
March 27 2019 14:27 GMT
#5
For reference on the nuances: I could probably dig up a few replays and look at the overall networth difference between Spec/Enigma in each game and average that out combined with how they interact in lane, post-lane, and then later on in the game to sort of prove this point. I know Enigma on paper sounds good since you 'win' the lane and he has a big AoE teamfight spell and pure damage, but it's one of those things where once you play it and see how they interact it feels pretty awful. I'm honestly severely surprised teams were even first picking Enigma (granted they moved it to 4 often which helps) considering how many of those games were solid Spectre games yet it remained unpicked.
Agh's ult sniper: Sniper locks eyes with target unit, immobilizing them in horror as he turns the gun on himself. Channeled, lasts 5 seconds.
grizzly110590
Profile Joined September 2019
3 Posts
September 24 2019 18:45 GMT
#6
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