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South American Politics thread - Page 57

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IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States11 Posts
June 19 2020 19:43 GMT
#1121
Venezuela will likely cease to exist this decade. Mass famine and nothing of value (its oil price having dropped and remaining low) will turn it into a political no-man's-land.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
JimmiC
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada0 Posts
June 19 2020 21:04 GMT
#1122
If Maduro continues to hold power you might be right. They have lots of gold and iron ore to go with all the oil that is much cheaper to get at than fracing or oilsands. If they were properly maintained they would still be doing fairly well even at these low prices, the low production is the biggest issues. They also have tons of great land for growing crops. However right now it is mainly used to grow narcotics and they have their version of blood gold that the gangs control and treat the workers and environment atrociously.

Maduro is making all his money from that gold and more the drugs so it basically a narco state riddled with corruption to steal what little money is actually still created in the economy. And as long as Maduro holds power and the US and Europe have prohibition this will likely continue. Even the CLAP (food given to the poor) is a grift. Not only do only people who vote Maduro get it, but there is a huge discrpenentcy between what Mexici charges them and what their books say . And somehow while the vast majority of people starve Maduro, his genrals and their families and friends live like kings.

Venezuela should easily be the wealthiest country in South America and have living standards comparable to the western democracies of NA and Europe. But they are sobfar away from that with little hope of making up the differences. And the US sanctions are not helping, but it was going way downhill with millions of refugees before that.

They should probably stop them just because it really has not shook his power at all and with the economy basically at 0 he can still make enough money off of Ellicit activities to keep his and the other power brokers lifestyles grandiose.
Emnjay #1 in the worldo
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States11 Posts
June 20 2020 01:46 GMT
#1123
On June 20 2020 06:04 JimmiC wrote:
If Maduro continues to hold power you might be right. They have lots of gold and iron ore to go with all the oil that is much cheaper to get at than fracing or oilsands. If they were properly maintained they would still be doing fairly well even at these low prices, the low production is the biggest issues. They also have tons of great land for growing crops. However right now it is mainly used to grow narcotics and they have their version of blood gold that the gangs control and treat the workers and environment atrociously.

Maduro is making all his money from that gold and more the drugs so it basically a narco state riddled with corruption to steal what little money is actually still created in the economy. And as long as Maduro holds power and the US and Europe have prohibition this will likely continue. Even the CLAP (food given to the poor) is a grift. Not only do only people who vote Maduro get it, but there is a huge discrpenentcy between what Mexici charges them and what their books say . And somehow while the vast majority of people starve Maduro, his genrals and their families and friends live like kings.

Venezuela should easily be the wealthiest country in South America and have living standards comparable to the western democracies of NA and Europe. But they are sobfar away from that with little hope of making up the differences. And the US sanctions are not helping, but it was going way downhill with millions of refugees before that.

They should probably stop them just because it really has not shook his power at all and with the economy basically at 0 he can still make enough money off of Ellicit activities to keep his and the other power brokers lifestyles grandiose.


It doesn't matter if Maduro steps down. The only reason he still has power is because there's no viable leader who can wrest control from him. And there's no reason another country would bother going in and cleaning up the mess. Oil is cheap now and it's not coming back for the foreseeable future.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
JimmiC
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada0 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-06-20 02:54:07
June 20 2020 02:29 GMT
#1124
On June 20 2020 10:46 IgnE wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2020 06:04 JimmiC wrote:
If Maduro continues to hold power you might be right. They have lots of gold and iron ore to go with all the oil that is much cheaper to get at than fracing or oilsands. If they were properly maintained they would still be doing fairly well even at these low prices, the low production is the biggest issues. They also have tons of great land for growing crops. However right now it is mainly used to grow narcotics and they have their version of blood gold that the gangs control and treat the workers and environment atrociously.

Maduro is making all his money from that gold and more the drugs so it basically a narco state riddled with corruption to steal what little money is actually still created in the economy. And as long as Maduro holds power and the US and Europe have prohibition this will likely continue. Even the CLAP (food given to the poor) is a grift. Not only do only people who vote Maduro get it, but there is a huge discrpenentcy between what Mexici charges them and what their books say . And somehow while the vast majority of people starve Maduro, his genrals and their families and friends live like kings.

Venezuela should easily be the wealthiest country in South America and have living standards comparable to the western democracies of NA and Europe. But they are sobfar away from that with little hope of making up the differences. And the US sanctions are not helping, but it was going way downhill with millions of refugees before that.

They should probably stop them just because it really has not shook his power at all and with the economy basically at 0 he can still make enough money off of Ellicit activities to keep his and the other power brokers lifestyles grandiose.


It doesn't matter if Maduro steps down. The only reason he still has power is because there's no viable leader who can wrest control from him. And there's no reason another country would bother going in and cleaning up the mess. Oil is cheap now and it's not coming back for the foreseeable future.


I think I'm in the no one going camp anyway, it rarely seems to work out well for the people. The people I talk too are still hopeful, they say that most of the soldiers do not support Maduro so it will only take one general to sour and it could be toppled. Or if it gets so bad with Covid that the soldiers family and friends are all even worse off who knows. Now if a different general seizes control is that better for the people, who knows.

As for oil I'm not 100% sure on it staying as low as it is. There is certainly lots of reasons for your position but each oil crash is expected to be the last one. Plastic production continues to rise, the middle east is always one match away from exploding, the whole world seems on edge and there are many governments who could see war as a good distraction. For example the India, China border has constant skirmishes and for the first time in a decade there was deaths. (If you have read about it is pretty wild, they both station troops in a inhospitable high altitude area where they both have claims to the boarder and then the troops on both sides often engage in hand to hand combat with fists and some times Iron bars, but this time some officer got pushes off an edge and fell to his death so the fight escalated and more died). I'm not trying to say that one of these would happen, but just that there are a lot of possibilities that could happen. There could be a lot of frac'rs out of business if the prices stay low. The Saudi's can move the whole market by dumping oil or not, and them and Russia are the top producers other than the US (who still uses slightly more than they produce) and I'm not sure that their Governments can afford to have the prices stay this low.

Edit : if you take away taxes which in Venezuela is just Maduro profit anyhow it costs them 17 dollars a barrel to get. (10 in taxes if you want to add it.)
http://graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/
Their high production point was 3.8 million per day. (500k now)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/01/29/charting-the-decline-of-venezuelas-oil-industry/


So even if they just got back to that at 40 dollar a barrel oil you are talking about. 87 million dollars a day of potential profit. Which when you consider how much you would be willing to part with is a huge amount capital to get, which means tons of work, service jobs and so on.

With even mediocre or below average leadership Venezuela could be a well off country.

Emnjay #1 in the worldo
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States11 Posts
June 20 2020 04:31 GMT
#1125
If the frackers go out of business then Venezuela goes out of business. Most of the refineries in the US won't even be able to use the Venezuelan crude in a few years because they are retooling them all away from low grade crude.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
JimmiC
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada0 Posts
July 03 2020 12:33 GMT
#1126
Sorry inge I thought I responded to this earlier. It is much cheaper to get oil out of Venezuela, it sort of looks expensive because of the high taxes but given that the government seized the biggest oil company it more of an accounting trick (about 1/3 of the cost per barrel is "taxes". But even at the cost of 26 dollars a barrel there is a lot of money to be made there. The biggest issue is they didn't properly maintain their current rigs because of mass corruption and very few foreign companies (China and Russia have) are willing to make much of a foreign investment because they can't trust that it will maintained but more than that the worry is that Maduro will blame them for any problems and take that company. Which would have been OK for the Venezuelan people if the government corruption didn't take away all the profit and they didn't want to maintain anything because that was less that they could steal. The big thing is low oil prices don't break the big oil companies, what it does is stop all captial investment so there is no longer and of the construction economy around new Oil.

http://graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/


In even worse news the health crisis is getting worse in Venezuela, some of their frozen assets have been unfrozen and to be used by the health care workers, hopefully most of it actually makes it to the people!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/02/new-deal-could-ease-venezuelas-humanitarian-crisis-international-community-must-get-behind-it/#comments-wrapper
Emnjay #1 in the worldo
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States11 Posts
July 03 2020 14:08 GMT
#1127
On July 03 2020 21:33 JimmiC wrote:
Sorry inge I thought I responded to this earlier. It is much cheaper to get oil out of Venezuela, it sort of looks expensive because of the high taxes but given that the government seized the biggest oil company it more of an accounting trick (about 1/3 of the cost per barrel is "taxes". But even at the cost of 26 dollars a barrel there is a lot of money to be made there. The biggest issue is they didn't properly maintain their current rigs because of mass corruption and very few foreign companies (China and Russia have) are willing to make much of a foreign investment because they can't trust that it will maintained but more than that the worry is that Maduro will blame them for any problems and take that company. Which would have been OK for the Venezuelan people if the government corruption didn't take away all the profit and they didn't want to maintain anything because that was less that they could steal. The big thing is low oil prices don't break the big oil companies, what it does is stop all captial investment so there is no longer and of the construction economy around new Oil.

http://graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/


In even worse news the health crisis is getting worse in Venezuela, some of their frozen assets have been unfrozen and to be used by the health care workers, hopefully most of it actually makes it to the people!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/02/new-deal-could-ease-venezuelas-humanitarian-crisis-international-community-must-get-behind-it/#comments-wrapper


Yes I agree that upfront capital investment and/or maintenance of existing systems is the most important factor. Still bad news for Venezuela.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
JimmiC
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada0 Posts
July 03 2020 14:15 GMT
#1128
On July 03 2020 23:08 IgnE wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 03 2020 21:33 JimmiC wrote:
Sorry inge I thought I responded to this earlier. It is much cheaper to get oil out of Venezuela, it sort of looks expensive because of the high taxes but given that the government seized the biggest oil company it more of an accounting trick (about 1/3 of the cost per barrel is "taxes". But even at the cost of 26 dollars a barrel there is a lot of money to be made there. The biggest issue is they didn't properly maintain their current rigs because of mass corruption and very few foreign companies (China and Russia have) are willing to make much of a foreign investment because they can't trust that it will maintained but more than that the worry is that Maduro will blame them for any problems and take that company. Which would have been OK for the Venezuelan people if the government corruption didn't take away all the profit and they didn't want to maintain anything because that was less that they could steal. The big thing is low oil prices don't break the big oil companies, what it does is stop all captial investment so there is no longer and of the construction economy around new Oil.

http://graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/


In even worse news the health crisis is getting worse in Venezuela, some of their frozen assets have been unfrozen and to be used by the health care workers, hopefully most of it actually makes it to the people!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/02/new-deal-could-ease-venezuelas-humanitarian-crisis-international-community-must-get-behind-it/#comments-wrapper


Yes I agree that upfront capital investment and/or maintenance of existing systems is the most important factor. Still bad news for Venezuela.


No doubt, and I don't know what answer is. I'm really against military interventions and have thought for a long time that "soft power" type things were the way to force change. But that also seems to not work and just put the vulnerable citizens in even a worse situation. I'm not sure that there is any "good" way to remove a dictator. So import to make sure to have a political and judicial system that does not allow it to happen.
Emnjay #1 in the worldo
JimmiC
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada0 Posts
July 20 2020 20:16 GMT
#1129
My goodness. More sad news coming from the UN human rights reports on Maduro. The guy is a lot closer to a cartel leader than a president. Maduro's hit squads have carried out 6856 between jan 1 2018 and may 1 2019. Which is the worst since the Right-wing military dictatorship of the 70's. And a additional 1324 from Ja1st of this year to May. It does not appear that even Covid will slow him down.

I don't see anyway that it gets better for Venezuelans for a long time, nothing appears to shake Maduro's grip on the country.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/andres-oppenheimer/article244314432.html
Emnjay #1 in the worldo
JimmiC
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada0 Posts
August 19 2020 22:54 GMT
#1130
what a disgrace this Venezuelan Government is. They are doing their best to steal and destroy with no cost too high.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/venezuela-coast-could-take-half-a-century-to-recover-from-oil-spill-researcher-says/ar-BB18agMX?li=AAggFp4
Emnjay #1 in the worldo
Jockmcplop
Profile Joined February 2012
United Kingdom10 Posts
October 19 2020 16:30 GMT
#1131
Looks like Bolivia is returning to socialism after a brief stint with a right wing government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/bolivia-election-exit-polls-suggest-thumping-win-evo-morales-party-luis-arce

Exit polls suggest Evo Morales’s leftwing party has pulled off a stunning political comeback in Bolivia’s presidential election, although an official result has yet to emerge.

Two private surveys projected that Luis Arce, the candidate for Morales’s Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas), secured more than 50% of the vote in the ballot on Sunday, with his closest rival, the centrist former president Carlos Mesa, receiving about 30%.
RIP Meatloaf <3
JimmiC
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada0 Posts
October 19 2020 16:35 GMT
#1132
On October 20 2020 01:30 Jockmcplop wrote:
Looks like Bolivia is returning to socialism after a brief stint with a right wing government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/bolivia-election-exit-polls-suggest-thumping-win-evo-morales-party-luis-arce

Show nested quote +
Exit polls suggest Evo Morales’s leftwing party has pulled off a stunning political comeback in Bolivia’s presidential election, although an official result has yet to emerge.

Two private surveys projected that Luis Arce, the candidate for Morales’s Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas), secured more than 50% of the vote in the ballot on Sunday, with his closest rival, the centrist former president Carlos Mesa, receiving about 30%.

That is pretty awesome. I was worried that when Morales tried to make it about himself instead of the movement his party was lost but they were able to win legitimately and much larger. It appears the Bolivians wanted MAS they just didn't want a 4th term of Morales and slipping into a dictatorship. Big win for democracy.
Emnjay #1 in the worldo
Jockmcplop
Profile Joined February 2012
United Kingdom10 Posts
October 19 2020 16:53 GMT
#1133
On October 20 2020 01:35 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 20 2020 01:30 Jockmcplop wrote:
Looks like Bolivia is returning to socialism after a brief stint with a right wing government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/bolivia-election-exit-polls-suggest-thumping-win-evo-morales-party-luis-arce

Exit polls suggest Evo Morales’s leftwing party has pulled off a stunning political comeback in Bolivia’s presidential election, although an official result has yet to emerge.

Two private surveys projected that Luis Arce, the candidate for Morales’s Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas), secured more than 50% of the vote in the ballot on Sunday, with his closest rival, the centrist former president Carlos Mesa, receiving about 30%.

That is pretty awesome. I was worried that when Morales tried to make it about himself instead of the movement his party was lost but they were able to win legitimately and much larger. It appears the Bolivians wanted MAS they just didn't want a 4th term of Morales and slipping into a dictatorship. Big win for democracy.

Yeah its a good showing all round. Less right wing governments in the world is good even if I doubt it'll have one iota of an effect in the US or Europe.
RIP Meatloaf <3
JimmiC
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada0 Posts
October 19 2020 17:30 GMT
#1134
On October 20 2020 01:53 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 20 2020 01:35 JimmiC wrote:
On October 20 2020 01:30 Jockmcplop wrote:
Looks like Bolivia is returning to socialism after a brief stint with a right wing government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/bolivia-election-exit-polls-suggest-thumping-win-evo-morales-party-luis-arce

Exit polls suggest Evo Morales’s leftwing party has pulled off a stunning political comeback in Bolivia’s presidential election, although an official result has yet to emerge.

Two private surveys projected that Luis Arce, the candidate for Morales’s Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas), secured more than 50% of the vote in the ballot on Sunday, with his closest rival, the centrist former president Carlos Mesa, receiving about 30%.

That is pretty awesome. I was worried that when Morales tried to make it about himself instead of the movement his party was lost but they were able to win legitimately and much larger. It appears the Bolivians wanted MAS they just didn't want a 4th term of Morales and slipping into a dictatorship. Big win for democracy.

Yeah its a good showing all round. Less right wing governments in the world is good even if I doubt it'll have one iota of an effect in the US or Europe.

Yeah it will only have influence in SA, and you really don't want Maduro as the example of the left there. I guess there is always a chance that if Bolivia out preforms the rest of SA in a bunch of ways it has a little effect else where but the chances of that seem slim.

I hope Morales stays as some sort of advisor/figurehead and does not attempt to get back power because he did a lot of positive things and it would be nice if he had ended with a good legacy.
Emnjay #1 in the worldo
ShoCkeyy
Profile Joined July 2008
0 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-19 18:26:23
October 19 2020 18:23 GMT
#1135
Since there isn't a "Caribbean politics thread" and SA is about as close I can get, Cuba is running out of food. Since Trump added the embargo again, and COVID basically stopped all flights, which a lot of Cuban Americans would fly to Cuba from Miami to bring food, has ceased to exist now. Cuba is literally running out of food. I personally feel that Cuba was part of the dictatorship takeover of Venezuela, they send a lot of "doctors and army personal" to Venezuela for what ever reason.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/20/world/americas/cuba-economy.html

The beginning statement says "Cuba was able to control the coronavirus" is also a lie, shits rampant, it's just Cuban propaganda. Now that the island has internet, we receive calls from our Cuban family through Facebook and their number of tools. People are still getting sick, but the people also don't care at this point. They live in hell basically.
Life?
JimmiC
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada0 Posts
October 19 2020 19:12 GMT
#1136
Yes fine to post about Cuba here, we basically decided anything south of the US works since it would just end up with too many threads.

That really sucks for Cuba, I was hopeful for them Post Fidel but it appears the grip is too strong. Hopefully Biden wins and has a different policy than Trump, embargos seem to just hurt the people as the leaders still get their money and it does not impact their lifestyle. I'm not sure if Obama trying to normalize things would work, but this sure is not.
Emnjay #1 in the worldo
Nebuchad
Profile Joined December 2012
Switzerland0 Posts
October 19 2020 19:14 GMT
#1137
On October 20 2020 01:30 Jockmcplop wrote:
Looks like Bolivia is returning to socialism after a brief stint with a right wing government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/bolivia-election-exit-polls-suggest-thumping-win-evo-morales-party-luis-arce

Show nested quote +
Exit polls suggest Evo Morales’s leftwing party has pulled off a stunning political comeback in Bolivia’s presidential election, although an official result has yet to emerge.

Two private surveys projected that Luis Arce, the candidate for Morales’s Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas), secured more than 50% of the vote in the ballot on Sunday, with his closest rival, the centrist former president Carlos Mesa, receiving about 30%.


That is pretty fucking awesome.
"It is capitalism that is incentivizing me to lazily explain this to you while at work because I am not rewarded for generating additional value."
GreenHorizons
Profile Joined April 2011
United States0 Posts
October 19 2020 20:28 GMT
#1138
On October 20 2020 04:14 Nebuchad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 20 2020 01:30 Jockmcplop wrote:
Looks like Bolivia is returning to socialism after a brief stint with a right wing government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/bolivia-election-exit-polls-suggest-thumping-win-evo-morales-party-luis-arce

Exit polls suggest Evo Morales’s leftwing party has pulled off a stunning political comeback in Bolivia’s presidential election, although an official result has yet to emerge.

Two private surveys projected that Luis Arce, the candidate for Morales’s Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas), secured more than 50% of the vote in the ballot on Sunday, with his closest rival, the centrist former president Carlos Mesa, receiving about 30%.


That is pretty fucking awesome.


Indeed. Massive effort from MaS overcoming a lot of forces pitted against them.
'
As for Cuba, what the US does to Cuba is clearly a crime against humanity (imo). Last UN vote was 187 supporting the annual condemnation of US sanctions, Brazil, Israel and the US were the only nations in the world to vote against the condemnation.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then"// Socialism has markets. Markets ≠ capitalism.
ShoCkeyy
Profile Joined July 2008
0 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-19 21:03:14
October 19 2020 21:02 GMT
#1139
On October 20 2020 05:28 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 20 2020 04:14 Nebuchad wrote:
On October 20 2020 01:30 Jockmcplop wrote:
Looks like Bolivia is returning to socialism after a brief stint with a right wing government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/bolivia-election-exit-polls-suggest-thumping-win-evo-morales-party-luis-arce

Exit polls suggest Evo Morales’s leftwing party has pulled off a stunning political comeback in Bolivia’s presidential election, although an official result has yet to emerge.

Two private surveys projected that Luis Arce, the candidate for Morales’s Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas), secured more than 50% of the vote in the ballot on Sunday, with his closest rival, the centrist former president Carlos Mesa, receiving about 30%.


That is pretty fucking awesome.


Indeed. Massive effort from MaS overcoming a lot of forces pitted against them.
'
As for Cuba, what the US does to Cuba is clearly a crime against humanity (imo). Last UN vote was 187 supporting the annual condemnation of US sanctions, Brazil, Israel and the US were the only nations in the world to vote against the condemnation.


What the Cuban government also does to its people is a crime. I'm sure the government will be fine, but the rest of them won't. As soon as you enter the country, you're immediately being bribed by the airport officials. "Oh this will cost you to bring it into the country, but if you give me $100 (AMERICAN), I can let you get it in for cheaper."

This has no reference, they literally will do that for any piece of item you bring with you just to syphon money from tourists.
Life?
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway0 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-19 21:19:56
October 19 2020 21:19 GMT
#1140
Hm is that a recent development? I remember as a tourist we got fleeced through virtue of having to pay dollars instead of pesos, but the actual corruption was non-existent. We tipped after one meal - and then I remember my dad was very conscious to hand over the money in an invisible manner. We even used a private cab and were caught by the police - but their treatment of us was fantastic - they asked to see our passports and ordered us a new official cab. (now, the cab drivers looked to be some of the more massively worried people I've ever seen, no doubt the punishment they were due for was in no way proportional to their crime - I'm just wondering about the corruption and bribes part because that was something I genuinely didn't see, at all. (But - been 15 years since I was there, so I'm not disputing that it happens now.)
I had to change my quote to seem more serious because I'm trying to use myself in an academic text :(
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