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EU DPC - Who will make it?

Forum Index > Dota 2 General
11 CommentsPost a Reply

EU DPC - Who will make it?

February 23rd, 2021 09:13 GMT
Text byJulmust
Graphics byDreamHack

We're coming into the last week of the first EU DPC season, and things could not be more nerve wracking for the teams involved. With just three series left to play, five(!) teams have a shot at making the Major. But all is not equal in the world. So we're going to go through some of the scenarios and try to give some sort of percentage score of how likely we think that the teams are to make it to the Major.

Please note that these percentage estimates are mostly arbitrary numbers and completely unscientific. We haven't done a deep data dive to back them up and we invite you to make your own predictions. Basically, we want you to see this article as a basis for discussion. We could be way off (like with our wonderful "Hot Takes" at the start of the season) and that's fine. If you want to have a more data based approach, check out what Noxville is doing on Twitter.

We'll go through the teams in the order Liquipedia has them listed on the 23rd of February. Now, without further ado, let's get into this!


Chance of making the Major: 90%
On paper, Alliance are a shoo-in for the Major. They've done pretty much exactly what they needed to do all season. Stable performance after stable performance. Nikobaby is still a beast and Limmp has been showing off some truly inspired play. Their crowning achievement came in week 2, when they took down OG 2-0, and they're the only team (thus far) that has guaranteed themselves a tiebreaker. However, it's not just clear skies for the Swedish org. If they can beat Team Liquid on Tuesday, they're golden. Major bound as the second seed and looking good. However, if they end up going into a 4 team tiebreaker, things get problematic for them. To describe why that's the case, we need to get ahead of ourselves a little bit.

Let's assume we get a tiebreaker between Alliance, Liquid, Nigma, and OG. Four teams, three spots. In that scenario, Alliance will only have a winning record against OG. And we're not talking about the EU DPC, we're talking since the 1st of January 2020. If they get into a tiebreaker, they will have a losing record against Liquid and Nigma. Just beating OG is enough to get through but we don't feel like it's a complete lock. Hence we give Alliance a 90% chance of getting to the Major.



Chance of making the Major: 50%
This is a hard one, if for no other reason than the writer being a big Liquid fanboy. Liquid has been inconsistent, at best, so far in the DPC and that's going to hurt them. They've look great winning and they've looked terrible losing. And now they have to beat Alliance, a team that has looked as good as they did just after forming in 2019. A team they're tied with in win percentage going into the series. The one thing speaking for Liquid is their series against OG last week. After getting absolutely smashed by the two-time TI winners, Liquid came back in impressive fashion. And that's promising. But last week is last week.

Interestingly enough, we'd say that Liquid has a pretty good chance at making the Major if they make it to tiebreakers. They'll have an advantage against everyone but Team Nigma. But Nigma has an advantage against all teams that are likely to get to the tiebreaker. Still, beating Alliance is no easy task and we're giving them the same shot at making the Major as their win percentage is against Alliance: 50%.



Chance of making the Major: 85%
The only reason that we're giving Nigma a lower "score" than Alliance is the fact that Alliance already has 4 wins. We're taking into account the fact that Nigma might lose to HCE (spoiler: they won't). But other than that, we see next to nothing standing in their way to the Major. They'll beat HCE on Tuesday and are very likely to emerge from a tiebreaker at the very top.

If you dig really deep, you could say that Nigma's three game losing streak in the middle of the DPC is cause for concern but we strongly believe they've emerged from that experience a stronger team. Or you could bring out their worrying win rate against OG over the last year. But perspective is important. Nigma went without Kuroky for an extended period of time in 2020. Since then they're tied at 2-2 with OG. So yeah, Nigma is very likely to make the major, barring a perfect storm scenario.



Chance of making the Major: 30%
We're going to start looking like OG haters at some point. And we're really not. We swear. It's just that OG is in a sticky situation right now. They need to win against Secret on Wednesday to guarantee themselves a tiebreaker. And even if they do, they don't have a clear advantage against any likely tiebreaker opponent. Let's go through what needs to happen for OG, in order:

First: Win against Secret OR Liquid loses to Alliance
Here, we'd say the second is a more likely scenario. Yes, Secret has been known to slow down once they've done what they need to do, as to not show off more than they have to. But at this point, we're pretty sure Secret could win with just about any five heroes. So as long as Secret actually shows up for the match, OG will struggle. It's not an impossible task but it's unlikely.

Second: Get through via tiebreakers
There are two scenarios here: the four team tiebreaker we've been focusing on a lot above. OG would come in as underdogs and would have to rise to the occasion. Something we've seen them do multiple times before (TI8 finals, anyone?). It's definitely possible they'll do it again. It's funny, because even though they don't have a great record against Liquid, Nigma, or Alliance, we think OG would much prefer that scenario compared to scenario #2: a 2 team tiebreaker against Team Liquid. OG has not performed well against Insania and crew... ever. They had a tense game three against Liquid on Saturday but game 2 was just embarrassing to watch. After figuring out what happened in game 1, it looked like Liquid just had OG's number.

Due to all these hurdles in their way, we're going to say that OG has a ~30% chance at making the Major.



Chance of making the Major: 5%
Yes, Tundra are still not 100% eliminated from Major contention. No matter how weird that might seem. They are the only team involved in the fight that has no matches this week, meaning they'll need to rely on other teams to even get to tiebreakers. Tundra needs two out of the three teams above them — Liquid, Nigma, and OG — to lose their games. If that happens, they will make tiebreakers. In that case, it will be a three team tiebreaker for 1 spot in the Major.

But even in a tiebreaker scenario, they will be the underwhelming underdogs. We've seen Skiter pull off some big plays, in key moments, during the season. And we've seen Nine turn into a very solid midlaner. But that doesn't mean they're ready yet. We think that Tundra might be a good competitor in the second season of the DPC but we have a hard time seeing them getting to the Major at this point. Not impossible that they do but it's highly unlikely.



Writer: Julmust
Editor: OmniEulogy
Graphics: Julmust / DreamHack
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AdministratorI'm dancing in the moonlight
Julmust
Profile Joined November 2008
Sweden2349 Posts
February 23 2021 09:14 GMT
#2
Sorry for this coming out so soon before the matches. For some reason, I thought the first matches of the weeks were to be played on Wednesday...
AdministratorI'm dancing in the moonlight
kerpal
Profile Joined June 2009
United Kingdom103 Posts
February 23 2021 10:07 GMT
#3
thanks for doing this, nice to have the options spelled out like this.
ShiaoPi
Profile Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN3333 Posts
February 23 2021 11:42 GMT
#4
really really hope Liquid make it
Writer@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
Mollask
Profile Joined January 2020
6 Posts
February 23 2021 12:47 GMT
#5
So we have in total 260% for 3 Major Spots... hm...
Sr18
Profile Joined April 2006
Netherlands178 Posts
February 23 2021 13:10 GMT
#6
I'm really enjoying the DPC EU coverage. Thanks for making it.
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't Park Yeong Min - CJ fighting!
Julmust
Profile Joined November 2008
Sweden2349 Posts
February 23 2021 14:05 GMT
#7
On February 23 2021 21:47 Mollask wrote:
So we have in total 260% for 3 Major Spots... hm...

yeah I really should have cranked those numbers up, shouldn't I?
AdministratorI'm dancing in the moonlight
Rufus Dupres
Profile Joined December 2018
Germany996 Posts
February 23 2021 14:14 GMT
#8
After Nigma´s three losses in a row, I would have never thought they have a realistic shot at placing 2nd in the qualifiers. I just hope they do not somehow fall over an opponent who is already eliminated and playing for fun only.

The series between Liquid and Alliance will be dope though and hopefully live up to the expectations.
"The map is black, but I see everything" - Kuro - MegaFon 2018
Darrow
Profile Joined February 2021
2 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-02-23 14:18:39
February 23 2021 14:18 GMT
#9
Thank you for this article! I am surprised and a little sad that content similar to this cannot be found anywhere else, but thats an entirely different discussion.

A couple of points:

- Lets assume Secret, Liquid and Nigma all win. Secret finishes 1st, and the next 3 teams all end up with a 4:3 record. Since all 3 technically go to the major (1 to groups and 2 to wild card matches), I would assume that points amassed between these 3 would be looked at. In that case: 1. Secret, 2. Nigma, 3. Liquid and 4. Alliance - correct?

- Another scenario: Secret, Alliance and Nigma all win. Secret finishes 1st, Alliance 2nd, Nigma 3rd and Liquid play an actual tiebreaker between OG, because in this case there is a difference between going to major and not - correct?

- Final scenario, the dreaded one I suppose: OG, Liquid and Nigma all win. Secret still 1st, but now Alliance, Liquid, OG and Nigma all end with 4:3. Are all 4 of them involved in a bo1 tiebraker?

Just a sidenote - After a season like this and with everything thats a stake here, a bo1 tiebraker is ridiculous.
Archeon
Profile Joined May 2011
2350 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-02-23 18:28:34
February 23 2021 15:46 GMT
#10
I believe Nigma can loose vs HCE to get OG to play tiebreakers. Not that that's the probable outcome, but Nigma occasionally struggles and looses when they really shouldn't. All in all their chances for tiebreaker are pretty decent, liquid vs Alliance is imo A favored atm and I wouldn't be surprised if Puppey went experimental with Secret's drafts since they are already securely first. I'd estimate HCE>Nigma at ~5%, OG > Secret at ~ 15% and A > Liquid at ~60%, so their chances of either happening are somewhere in the 2/3rds area.

OG just lost to TL though, albeit 2:1, so the overall estimation seems about right. Funnily enough if I estimate Liquid:OG at 55:45 based on their recent result but OG being the higher capped team based on the aforementioned guesses OG had a chance of making it of 30,4%.

That being said there's a bunch of small chances that I didn't calculate that would go in favor of OG and I'm partial towards TL and against OG, so their real chance is probably slightly higher.

On February 23 2021 23:18 Darrow wrote:
Thank you for this article! I am surprised and a little sad that content similar to this cannot be found anywhere else, but thats an entirely different discussion.

A couple of points:

- Lets assume Secret, Liquid and Nigma all win. Secret finishes 1st, and the next 3 teams all end up with a 4:3 record. Since all 3 technically go to the major (1 to groups and 2 to wild card matches), I would assume that points amassed between these 3 would be looked at. In that case: 1. Secret, 2. Nigma, 3. Liquid and 4. Alliance - correct?

- Another scenario: Secret, Alliance and Nigma all win. Secret finishes 1st, Alliance 2nd, Nigma 3rd and Liquid play an actual tiebreaker between OG, because in this case there is a difference between going to major and not - correct?

- Final scenario, the dreaded one I suppose: OG, Liquid and Nigma all win. Secret still 1st, but now Alliance, Liquid, OG and Nigma all end with 4:3. Are all 4 of them involved in a bo1 tiebraker?

Just a sidenote - After a season like this and with everything thats a stake here, a bo1 tiebraker is ridiculous.

I believe all of these are correct, except in the second scenario Tundra will also play tiebreakers. Yes the final scenario ends with tiebreakers, everything deciding who gets into the top half does.
low gravity, yes-yes!
rehman354
Profile Joined February 2021
1 Post
February 28 2021 13:56 GMT
#11
--- Nuked ---
lasnky75018
Profile Joined March 2021
3 Posts
March 22 2021 13:07 GMT
#12
--- Nuked ---
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