We're coming into the last week of the first EU DPC season, and things could not be more nerve wracking for the teams involved. With just three series left to play, five(!) teams have a shot at making the Major. But all is not equal in the world. So we're going to go through some of the scenarios and try to give some sort of percentage score of how likely we think that the teams are to make it to the Major.
Please note that these percentage estimates are mostly arbitrary numbers and completely unscientific. We haven't done a deep data dive to back them up and we invite you to make your own predictions. Basically, we want you to see this article as a basis for discussion. We could be way off (like with our wonderful "Hot Takes" at the start of the season) and that's fine. If you want to have a more data based approach, check out what Noxville is doing on Twitter.
We'll go through the teams in the order Liquipedia has them listed on the 23rd of February. Now, without further ado, let's get into this!
|Chance of making the Major: 90%|
Let's assume we get a tiebreaker between Alliance, Liquid, Nigma, and OG. Four teams, three spots. In that scenario, Alliance will only have a winning record against OG. And we're not talking about the EU DPC, we're talking since the 1st of January 2020. If they get into a tiebreaker, they will have a losing record against Liquid and Nigma. Just beating OG is enough to get through but we don't feel like it's a complete lock. Hence we give Alliance a 90% chance of getting to the Major.
|Chance of making the Major: 50%|
Interestingly enough, we'd say that Liquid has a pretty good chance at making the Major if they make it to tiebreakers. They'll have an advantage against everyone but Team Nigma. But Nigma has an advantage against all teams that are likely to get to the tiebreaker. Still, beating Alliance is no easy task and we're giving them the same shot at making the Major as their win percentage is against Alliance: 50%.
|Chance of making the Major: 85%|
If you dig really deep, you could say that Nigma's three game losing streak in the middle of the DPC is cause for concern but we strongly believe they've emerged from that experience a stronger team. Or you could bring out their worrying win rate against OG over the last year. But perspective is important. Nigma went without Kuroky for an extended period of time in 2020. Since then they're tied at 2-2 with OG. So yeah, Nigma is very likely to make the major, barring a perfect storm scenario.
|Chance of making the Major: 30%|
First: Win against Secret OR Liquid loses to Alliance
Here, we'd say the second is a more likely scenario. Yes, Secret has been known to slow down once they've done what they need to do, as to not show off more than they have to. But at this point, we're pretty sure Secret could win with just about any five heroes. So as long as Secret actually shows up for the match, OG will struggle. It's not an impossible task but it's unlikely.
Second: Get through via tiebreakers
There are two scenarios here: the four team tiebreaker we've been focusing on a lot above. OG would come in as underdogs and would have to rise to the occasion. Something we've seen them do multiple times before (TI8 finals, anyone?). It's definitely possible they'll do it again. It's funny, because even though they don't have a great record against Liquid, Nigma, or Alliance, we think OG would much prefer that scenario compared to scenario #2: a 2 team tiebreaker against Team Liquid. OG has not performed well against Insania and crew... ever. They had a tense game three against Liquid on Saturday but game 2 was just embarrassing to watch. After figuring out what happened in game 1, it looked like Liquid just had OG's number.
Due to all these hurdles in their way, we're going to say that OG has a ~30% chance at making the Major.
|Chance of making the Major: 5%|
But even in a tiebreaker scenario, they will be the underwhelming underdogs. We've seen Skiter pull off some big plays, in key moments, during the season. And we've seen Nine turn into a very solid midlaner. But that doesn't mean they're ready yet. We think that Tundra might be a good competitor in the second season of the DPC but we have a hard time seeing them getting to the Major at this point. Not impossible that they do but it's highly unlikely.
Graphics: Julmust / DreamHack
Graphics: Julmust / DreamHack