Before the inevitable tidal wave of roster changes descends onto the Dota 2 scene, I wanted to record my thoughts on what teams will and won’t succumb to the temptation of change following their performances at The International 6.
This is essentially a power ranking with the teams I view as being potentially the most volatile being ranked highest, while the teams viewed as most stable will be the lowest in rank.
I’ve highlighted plays I view as “flight risks” based on their team history, performance, and career trajectory. Although there are a number of teams without any (n/a), this can be viewed as a prediction that the roster will remain stable.
16. Wings Gaming
Wings Gaming, while considered by many to be a team capable of breaking top five, slumped considerably prior to TI6. As a result, they did not receive a direct invite and had to fight their way through the China Qualifier. After placing third in their group, Wings blew past DC, MVP, EG, and then DC again in the finals in order to cinch the Aegis for China. The biggest threat to this roster’s stability may be the high offers that will inevitably be fielded by some of China’s bigger organizations.
Flight Risks: n/a
15. Digital Chaos
Seeming to be on relatively equal footing with Complexity prior to their run at this year’s event, DC pulled things together in a big way. They achieved second in their group and beat a slew of solid teams, including EHOME, on their way to placing second overall in the tournament. For a team of misfits that formed three days before the roster lock, this feat is even more impressive.
The nearest date for a roster change is likely following the next major. If Misery decides to step aside as captain, it’s possible that this may alter the team’s upward trajectory, potentially resulting in a roster change-up, otherwise, expect this team to stay together.
Flight Risks: n/a
14. Evil Geniuses
With three top three finishes in as many years, Evil Geniuses are a on their way to becoming a dynasty in DOTA 2. While they were viewed as favorites at TI6 after their solid group performance, they were eliminated by Digital Chaos and placed in 3rd. Given the quality of the organization and their consistently high level of success, it seems unlikely that anyone will be departing from the EG squad any time soon. While Fear is on the older side of DOTA professionals, he seems to be showing no signs of slowing down, so unless he suffers another injury or retires to make room for acquiring somebody else (a la Arteezy pt. III,) a retirement would be unexpected.
Flight Risks: Fear (Re-injury/Retirement)
13. Fnatic
Fnatic, after placing 5th/6th at the Shanghai Major, narrowly missed being a direct invite for TI6. After coming out of the SEA Region qualifiers second after TNC, expectations were lowered somewhat. Despite starting in the lower-bracket, Fnatic went on to eliminate Escape Gaming, Alliance, Team Liquid, and fan favorites MVP Phoenix, before falling to Digital Chaos, for a 4th place finish. Fnatic made the choice to drop Net prior to the Shanghai Major, indicating their willingness to adjust their roster when they feel a change is needed. While Mushi’s performance prior to TI may have indicated that he may be ready for retirement, he had his best showing of the year at the event, so it seems unlikely that he won’t aim for at least one more year of play.
Flight Risks: Mushi (Retirement)
12. OG
Going into TI6, OG were considered favorites. Backed by their two Major wins, the first team to do so, they seemed capable of nothing less than a podium finish. Dominating their group, they moved into the main event on solid footing. Two SEA teams later, they were headed home with a 9th-12th place finish. The team had previously emphasized their bond and friendly environment as a driving force for their success. If there was a shortage of midlane/carry talent, it’s plausible, though seemingly unlikely that Miracle could be pulled into another squad during the post-TI shuffle. Despite a bitter end to their season, it would be hard to imagine that the members of OG are disappointed with their recent results overall. For that reason, I would not expect and roster adjustments.
Flight risks: Miracle (Very doubtful)
11. MVP Phoenix
As the singular beacon of Korean DOTA, MVP Phoenix were responsible for knocking OG down into the lower bracket of the main event. Flaunting a hyper-aggressive style, they relentlessly pressured their opponents into submission. Given their impressive results and the lack of depth in the Korean DOTA scene, it seems likely that the members of MVP Phoenix will likely stick it out, barring any mandatory-military service.
Flight risks: Any member with uncompleted military service
10. TNC Gaming
Confirming his status as the mercenary of DOTA, Demon made the bold decision to jump from the South American Team Infamous, to another team across the world in the Phillipines, TNC Gaming. Impressively making it out of the SEA Qualifier first, TNC Gaming was one of the few true dark horses going into TI6. They didn’t disappoint, performing admirably in the group stages, though not strongly enough to put them into the upper bracket.
It was in the lower bracket where TNC truly shocked everyone, knocking out the two-time major winners and tournament favorites, OG, 2-0. Though they fell to DC in the following match, they have far overreached fans expectations of them. The team is packed with promising talent, but the distance from home may drive Demon away from his team unless he plans to relocate to the Philippines.
Flight risks: Demon
9. Team Liquid
After a string of successful LAN appearances, Team Liquid bombed in the TI6 Group stage, achieving second to last, and placing themselves into the lower bracket. They were able to beat an anemic Navi and another underperforming direct-invite in Newbee, but they were ushered out of the tournament by a revitalized Fnatic. Though they placed in the top 8, the roster undoubtedly expected more. With any underperformance morale is always left vulnerable, so if there are changes to the roster it may be as result of this.
Flight risks: n/a
8. EHOME
After blazing their way through the Wildcard tournament, EHOME dominated their groups and placed into the main event in good standing. Despite their early fire, they fell to Evil Geniuses and Digital Chaos in their following matches, leaving them them a 5th-6th place finish. As previous members of the much lauded legendary DK roster, LaNm and iceiceice are big enough names to be drafted into a Chinese super-team, should another one arise. EHOME’s fate likely depends on the magnitude of the roster changes around them.
Flight risks: LaNm (Super-team), iceiceice (Super-team)
7. Alliance
Alliance seemed to be “back” earlier in the year, but after making it out of their group in the upper half, they immediately lost to EHOME and Fnatic, eliminating them from the tournament and netting them a 9th-12th place finish. Despite a disappointing main event, they still have reason to be proud of their improvement over the past season. At this point, Alliance have to know their teammates strengths/weaknesses fairly well, as they’ve been together for quite a long time. If their roster breaks apart, it will likely be a result of this same familiarity. If they split, we may see Akke/Loda stick together, with S4 and AdmiralBulldog potentially jumping onto a top team like a revamped Team Secret.
Flight risks: S4, AdmiralBulldog
6. Newbee
Newbee are in position similar to OG’s. Having strong performances throughout the year and receiving a direct invite to TI6, they fell dramatically short of their perceived potential. In an interview after their elimination, kpii seemed hesitant to say whether the squad would stick together, likely a result of their placement in the 9th-12th spot. Having had a drop-off in results, kpii may return home to Australia or elect to pursue opportunities elsewhere, voluntarily or otherwise.
Flight risks: kpii
5. LGD
Missing their four-position player, September, LGD was forced to field their coach in his stead. The xiao8 led squad did well enough to secure 9th-12th, but overall it is hard not to view their performance as a disappointment. With the impending shuffle, xiao8 may be drawn into another super-team, and considered one of the most promising young talents, Maybe is in a similar position. Rumors are already circulating that Maybe has been transferred to another squad for an exorbitant amount of money. Despite a promising roster, this iteration of LGD may be broken apart by an currently under-performing team aiming to pick up Maybe.
Flight risks: xiao8 (Super-team/Retirement), Maybe (Super-team)
4. Navi
Navi rallied late in the season and earned a direct invite to TI6. They played moderately well in their group, but had the unfortunate luck of immediately facing Team Liquid in a BO1 when they reached the main event. Team Liquid shut Navi down with relative ease, leaving the CIS squad with 13th-16th place. It is possible that they decide to give their squad more time, but with so many talented CIS free agents floating around after the Pre-TI CIS shuffle, it seems likely that Navi will swap some out some members.
Flight risks: Everyone except Dendi
3. Vici Gaming Reborn
Like LGD, Vici Gaming Reborn struggled to secure visas for all of their players. Their offlaner, Yang, was replaced by their coach/stand-in Mikasa. Previously, when their mid-lane player Nono was unable to attend Starladder i-League Invitational #1, Mikasa stepped in for him and secured his first LAN victory. The team wasn’t able to harness the same synergy this time around and they finished in 13th-16th place. It’s plausible that if a Chinese shuffle the size of the post-Shanghai Major shuffle occurs, that the players with a higher reputation, fy and DDC, might get pulled away from VG.R.
Flight risks: fy, DDC
2. Escape Gaming
Wildcard teams that make it to into the International and proceed to get immediately crushed are always in a strange position. It’s hard to say that Escape Gaming had a disappointing performance, given they vastly exceeded expectations even making it out of a very stacked Europe Qualifiers. While the team is young and showed very solid potential, it would be naïve to have them any lower on this ranking. If the team can’t qualify for the next major, it would not be surprising to see Era and Qojqva find other teams, with their time as part of Escape Gaming serving as a propellant for their return to top-tier organizations.
Flight risks: Era, Qojqva
1. Team Secret
Team Secret’s TI6 run can only be described as disastrous. Their group stage play saw them on the fringe of making it out in the upper bracket, despite a 0-6 day two. Facing off against LGD in a BO1 in the lower-bracket, they fought back valiantly against a huge deficit, drawing the game to 70 minutes, but ultimately it was not enough. Every member of the squad has the capacity to play in a top-tier team, so it is unlikely that with so much talent and such a disappointing result, the entire team will stick it out for another go. While notably bros in real life, the team may be too small to accommodate both Arteezy and EternalEnvy, who both play a very farm-centric style. It would be feasible to see 2-3 members rotate out, with one of them almost certainly being Arteezy or EE.
Flight risks: Arteezy/EE, +1