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So, we're at that stage to start predicting TI6 invites, since we've gotten to the Top 4 at the Manila Major. Since I expect Valve to hold to roughly what they've laid out for the Major Invites, here's what I would view as most likely, given a few scenarios.
But, first, my assumptions.
1) Top 4 from previous Major gets auto-invites to next. (Why I'm posting this now.) 2) Valve does have an interior ranking system, based on Multi-regional LAN results. 3) Valve values those LAN results over the course of the Year.
Edit: In light of Ehome having changed their roster (forgot about this & it isn't on their Liquipedia page at the moment), I've updated the list. Na'Vi fans be happy. Though I'm not terribly confident in that choice.
The real reason this has gotten messy is, obviously, with Team Secret & EG going to the Open Qualifiers. Which is what brings up the Complexity issue. On a straight "what have you done for the year?" scenario, Ehome should probably take the invite over Complexity. However, I highly doubt that Valve is going to not invite an NA team at all, especially given that last year, Fnatic got an invite for pretty much just having Mushi and doing not horrible at a few events. So that leaves Complexity as the "best" NA team available to invite. (This is before considering how Valve is going to value Ehome's results from the year with a different roster, especially since Kaka got himself in with Newbee.)
My assumption, much like with the Manila Invites, is that Valve hopes the other LANs will sort out the issues for them. They didn't for Manila, which is why we got 12 direct invites. (They pretty clearly weren't looking to invite Na'Vi & LGD until VG.R & Wings won the two LANs before the invites.) Which is why the ESL One Frankfurt results will be telling. With 5 of the 8 teams there highly likely to have invites already, Vega & Na'Vi have a shot at grabbing a TI6 invite if they can make the Finals. (And it would also make Valve's life easier if Complexity made top 4.)
Lastly, a week ago, I was prepared to write up about Alliance being the "Bubble" team that was going to cause Valve all sorts of headaches. With both Team Secret & EG out of the running for invites, Alliance is all but assured an invite now.
For the teams hanging below the 8-team invite level, I have: VG.R, Wings, Vega, Na'Vi, Vici, Team Empire, CDEC and Digital Chaos. Na'Vi, Vega and Team Empire are the only ones with a chance still to change that.
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Just curious why would you give Complexity the priority over DC and Alliance over NaVi. Those are the only 2 teams that I think should be in the top 8 or at least in the top 10.
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On June 11 2016 19:56 FreakyDroid wrote: Just curious why would you give Complexity the priority over DC and Alliance over NaVi. Those are the only 2 teams that I think should be in the top 8 or at least in the top 10.
Complexity made 2 of 3 Majors, qualified for pretty much every LAN available, so they've picked up points for "International LANs" and have better places than DC has. DC won't see much LAN action until after Invites go out. While I would agree that DC is likely the better team, and should be conclusively by the time TI6 starts, that doesn't erase the entire Year of work that Complexity has. Valve has staked out a position on "What you do on LAN matters most". Complexity have that far & away over current DC.
As for Alliance, they made all 3 Majors and have 2 International LAN victories on the year. MVP also has 2 and Team Secret had 3. (TL or OG could pick up a 2nd by winning the Major, but they've already got invites locked up. Especially OG, as they won Frankfurt.) Na'Vi has one 2nd place at the only major LAN they showed up to, before Manila. While Na'Vi got 7th/8th, Alliance did at Shanghai. Alliance is far & away above Na'Vi in terms of the results on the Year.
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I can understand that reasoning and when you consider the whole year, perhaps thats true. But on the other hand DC has 2 players who won a major and since their arrival at DC the team has performed incredibly well, much better than coL or any other NA team.
NaVi vs Aliance is another case where 1 team constantly keeps improving and the other gets worse and worse. So what do we reward here, a team that keeps improving or the team that gets worse? Dont get me wrong, I dont have a gripe with your ranking as much as I do with Valve's invite system, which along with the roster locks is proving to be something that needs to change in near future if we are going to have a fair competition between the best teams of the world.
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Nah, it'd be a terrible system for Invites to TI if it's really only about "how have you looked in the last few weeks?". Would make the Majors & other international LANs pretty much meaningless. If you're good enough to go, but a new team, you can qualify. It's pretty much as simple as that.
Also, Valve pretty thoroughly staked out their position when they invited LGD over Newbee to the Manila Major. Sure, we all knew Newbee was the better team, at the time of the Invites. But if they were, then they'd qualify. Prior to the few weeks of Chinese Online play, Newbee had looked terrible all year, just playing slightly better than other pretty bad Chinese teams when it counted.
Same thing happened with Team Liquid at the Shanghai Major. We knew they were a good team when the Invites went out, but Alliance won WCA. Team Liquid was at WCA with a chance to get an invite, just as well. But they didn't win. (Neither did LGD, Team Empire or Wings, for that matter.) The good teams will get through, unless a random team has the best day of their lives when the qualifiers happen. (See: Team Archon, Shanghai Major.)
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I like to reward teams that have been doing well across the year as well. But I feel they have to put themselves into a decent position and form right before invites to be deserving of the invite over a new team that is playing well.
For example last year rave was doing well throughout the year, though not winning much and clearly weaker than the newly formed mushi team, I felt they deserved it more than team MY. They weren't in horrible form prior to the invite, they were just outshone by a new team.
Col is currently in the same situation as rave. However I feel they may not have done enough to stake their claim of an invite over DC.
Then there's navi and alliance. It is clear navi is the better team ATM, and one that has been improving and is in good form. Alliance may have won 2 tournaments, but did poorly in almost every other tournaments they have competed in.
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I agree with it being good to value results over the course of the year for TI, but imo there should be some more weight on recent results, and I don't think teams that got results with a different roster should really be in the discussion unless they've performed also with the current roster. For example I highly doubt EHOME is even in the discussion, as they've done nothing of note with their most recent roster.
I also doubt they will go with more than 8 invites this time. I think I would even prefer 6 (no NA invite, separate the qual slots 3/3/3/1 with 1 being SEA), but Valve hasn't gone there in the past. When you go past 6, I think you start to invite teams who haven't separated themselves from the pack all that clearly in recent months, and definitely not through a longer period.
If there are 8 invites I think you are right that they are likely to invite one NA team. Not sure which it should be. DC have looked better recently, but they placed the same as coL here so they didn't really separate themselves. If player results carry over in any way then obviously w33 and Misery have achieved more than any coL players, but coL has achieved more as a team. And also coL has a chance to still get a result from ESL Frankfurt.
Not sure if the last team for 8 should be Alliance. I see your point about them getting to all majors and winning 2 LANs during the year but their best major result was 7th-8th and they were 9th-12th in two of them. Both NaVi and Alliance have a chance to get one last result from Frankfurt too. But as I said I would prefer just not inviting either (or VGR or whatever other alternatives there could be) and giving the qualifier 1 additional spot.
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BTW your methodology is very flawed when it concludes ehome being one of the invites. The current team has accomplished nothing, pretty disastrous so far to be exact.
I agree though that alliance may have a chance with secret and eg self destructing.
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The CIS stream had nearly 250k viewers. I highly doubt that valve will risk not inviteing a single team of the CIS region and lose the viewership as a result. So Navi will probably get an invite.
Also 8 invites seems like the sweet spot. 3 eu/cis, 3 cn, 1 sea , 1 Na. Problem with inviting MVP & Fnatic is that the Sea team that will win the qualifier is just not competitive.So maybe just 1 invite for Sea.
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I should note I'd rather not see Ehome invited, but given the information we have to work from by Valve's previous actions, they're the most likely choice for that #9 position. We might not think back 9 months ago, but Ehome did get 4th at the Frankfurt Major, won MDL (which is was a really big tournament) and just came in 2nd in the Chinese Qualifiers to Newbee.
VG.R is definitely the bubble team in all of this, if we get some form of 10 invites. But their LAN win is looking better & better (with wins over MVP, OG, LGD & Na'Vi), and they just placed 7th/8th here at Manila. There will be 16 international LANs by the time TI6 invites go out, and they've won 1 of them. They'll be one of the 10-12 teams to have gotten a victory, and two of those teams are no longer able to get invites. (Team Secret is the top team on the Year, going into TI6, unless OG wins Manila.)
So VG.R's invite might actually be up to how Vega does at ESL One Frankfurt. Vega does have that 2nd at WePlay Season 3. It's been so dang long, but Vega did win a LAN on the year. Then bombed out of the Frankfurt Major and pretty much didn't qualify for much else on the year until WePlay.
This is really why the Great RTZ Shuffle Effects are annoying. Secret was the clear first Invite, pre-Manila Major. With EG being second. Ugh.
Still, given even a little recency bias, I'd expect VG.R over Vega & Na'Vi, unless either team does really well at ESL One Frankfurt. But it all won't really matter unless a non-invite team Wins the tournament.
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On June 11 2016 22:44 DucK- wrote: BTW your methodology is very flawed when it concludes ehome being one of the invites. The current team has accomplished nothing, pretty disastrous so far to be exact.
I agree though that alliance may have a chance with secret and eg self destructing.
The methodology is really straight forward: what has Valve actually done with invites? I was typing away in the WCA thread, back in December, about how the tournament was a likely play-in situation for an Invite to Shanghai. Though, at the time, I thought that TL's win at D2CL would was going to be valued higher. But Valve has staked out the "Win LANs" position for a chunk of their Major Invites.
This actually isn't too hard to predict, realistically. I don't have a betting or emotional stake in who gets invites, so it really isn't too hard. (That I spend a chunk of my work days sorting out what people are *not* telling me while watching what they're telling me with their actions, helps this analysis a great deal.)
But what we can't sort out, from the data we have, is how Valve is going to value tournament wins from very early in the Year. This effects Vega more than anyone else, I would assume.
On an 8-invite assumption, Na'Vi & Vega do have a shot at replacing Fnatic. But they're going to need to place highly at ESL One Frankfurt. Those two 5th/6th Finishes at the Majors are going to make Fnatic hard to dislodge. Vega might be able to with a loss in the Finals, but I suspect Valve is going to value doing well in the Majors very highly in their ranking system.
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I did not say that only past few weeks matter, that's an assumption on your part. Im not even arguing if your list is fair and correct. All Im saying is that the invite system doesnt take into account the present strength of teams and their growth over the year despite relatively poor performances prior to that. You rate Ehome ahead of Wings and Alliance ahead of VP even though VP is almost identical to Alliance when it comes to LAN placements. Im not saying you are wrong, but you wont be right either if someone argues with you that VP is more deserving.
The main point I'm trying to get across is that as competition gets fiercer and fiercer, the invite system based on a year long LAN performance, a year in which there are 3-4 roster changes, 3-4 patches and its based on 4 regions that greatly vary in competitiveness is simply not a solution that can support the very fast changing Dota landscape in the near future. The invite system already showed its cracks with Newbee and Liquid as you yourself illustrated, but as competition gets tougher and tougher, it will simply fail at some point because its just too cut and dry of a solution for a much more complex situation. The sooner Valve starts thinking for a replacement of their invite system the better.
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You are missing one key element , EG are going to get invited , and there is a slight chance Secret gets one as well , brace yourself.
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On June 12 2016 00:20 bluzi wrote: You are missing one key element , EG are going to get invited , and there is a slight chance Secret gets one as well , brace yourself.
I think Valve probably compromises and sends them directly to the Regional Qualifiers. Sending two potentially high-placing teams through the Open Qualifiers really spoils the lower-tier ecosystem.
There's also predicent for it. LGD at TI3, specifically. http://www.gosugamers.net/dota2/news/23996-lgd-cn-invitation-to-ti3-revoked-tongfu-invited They got bounced from a direct Invite to then Eastern Qualifier.
At this point, my guess is EG/GG/Amazon has been furiously negotiating this point.
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Alliance over Na'Vi, nice joke blog
User was warned for this post
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Yea I also would not be very surprised if Valve went back on their rules a bit and gave Secret and EG spots in regional qualifiers. I don't see them being invited straight to TI though.
I've said this in some threads before, but the roster lock rule, unless I've somehow misunderstood it, really didn't make sense for qualifier teams anyway. Unless I'm mistaken, if you didn't lock a team in March you are not eligible for a regional qualifier spot. So in theory you could have a team that forms in April, gets through to Manila by winning the open quals and regionals, and they still would not be eligible to get even a regional qualifier spot for TI. It doesn't make any sense. It seems more acceptable to demand TI invite teams to hold the same lineup after March, but for qualifier teams it's just stupid.
Also there's the fact that barely any NA team holds the same lineup anymore, so unless they go back on that rule the NA qual will either be full of very low tier teams (if there even were any that locked a roster) or they will have to fill it up through the open qualifiers entirely.
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The flaw with taking into account all the old tournaments is that majority of those performing teams then have changed rosters significantly. So these teams essentially are starting from scratch. Ehome's past results mean nothing now. Vega to a certain extent, though we're helped by their mediocrity since winning that one tournament.
Again the challenge would be where col and alliance are placed. They're both in poor form atm, so its debatable if they have done enough to edge out DC and navi respectively.
I don't think there's any other contentious teams that hasn't changed their rosters much. So we can safely just use recent results.
There's also eg and secret. Personally I think rules are rules. EG maybe OK if they don't take zai, since that's the exact ti5 roster.
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EHOME aren't eligible for a direct invite given that old chicken stepped down and was replaced with a non-registered player.
EDIT: it was eLeVeN, not old chicken. Point stands regardless
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On June 12 2016 02:17 spudde123 wrote: Yea I also would not be very surprised if Valve went back on their rules a bit and gave Secret and EG spots in regional qualifiers. I don't see them being invited straight to TI though.
I've said this in some threads before, but the roster lock rule, unless I've somehow misunderstood it, really didn't make sense for qualifier teams anyway. Unless I'm mistaken, if you didn't lock a team in March you are not eligible for a regional qualifier spot. So in theory you could have a team that forms in April, gets through to Manila by winning the open quals and regionals, and they still would not be eligible to get even a regional qualifier spot for TI. It doesn't make any sense.
Also there's the fact that barely any NA team holds the same lineup anymore, so unless they go back on that rule the NA qual will either be full of very low tier teams (if there even were any that locked a roster) or they will have to fill it up through the open qualifiers entirely.
Yeah, the post-Manila Major stuff with the rosters was going to be... odd. Is Valve going to invite VG to the Chinese Regional Qualifiers, as they were an Open Bracket team because of a roster change for the Manila Major?
In the American region, for instance, 4 of the 8 invited teams to the Regional Qualifiers have split up. Is Valve going to invite Veggies, Not Today & Perky Pepperonis to the American Regionals? I'm honestly not sure, as there's not a huge list from which to invites teams, at least to the Americas Regional. (To be noted, that's only what's up to date on Liquipedia. Some of the teams easily could have changed in that time frame that I can't find.)
At this point, it's one thing to "stick to the rules". It's wholly another thing to realize that, in the case of the 6-month Roster Lock, clearly, there's a pretty massive problem. Valve is going to have to make some sort of statement about it.
On June 12 2016 02:54 tehh4ck3r wrote: EHOME aren't eligible for a direct invite given that old chicken stepped down and was replaced with a non-registered player.
Crap. I checked everyone's Liquipedia rosters, but I forgot about that. Hrmm... I'll have to reappraise Bubble Teams.
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On June 12 2016 02:54 Taf the Ghost wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2016 02:17 spudde123 wrote: Yea I also would not be very surprised if Valve went back on their rules a bit and gave Secret and EG spots in regional qualifiers. I don't see them being invited straight to TI though.
I've said this in some threads before, but the roster lock rule, unless I've somehow misunderstood it, really didn't make sense for qualifier teams anyway. Unless I'm mistaken, if you didn't lock a team in March you are not eligible for a regional qualifier spot. So in theory you could have a team that forms in April, gets through to Manila by winning the open quals and regionals, and they still would not be eligible to get even a regional qualifier spot for TI. It doesn't make any sense.
Also there's the fact that barely any NA team holds the same lineup anymore, so unless they go back on that rule the NA qual will either be full of very low tier teams (if there even were any that locked a roster) or they will have to fill it up through the open qualifiers entirely. Yeah, the post-Manila Major stuff with the rosters was going to be... odd. Is Valve going to invite VG to the Chinese Regional Qualifiers, as they were an Open Bracket team because of a roster change for the Manila Major? In the American region, for instance, 4 of the 8 invited teams to the Regional Qualifiers have split up. Is Valve going to invite Veggies, Not Today & Perky Pepperonis to the American Regionals? I'm honestly not sure, as there's not a huge list from which to invites teams, at least to the Americas Regional. (To be noted, that's only what's up to date on Liquipedia. Some of the teams easily could have changed in that time frame that I can't find.) At this point, it's one thing to "stick to the rules". It's wholly another thing to realize that, in the case of the 6-month Roster Lock, clearly, there's a pretty massive problem. Valve is going to have to make some sort of statement about it.
For the NA quals, DC, coL, Not Today, and FDL are the only notable teams eligible for an invite. Every other team invited to Manila qualifiers has changed rosters.
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Thanks tehh4ck3r for the Ehome & old chicken point. I'd forgotten about that.
Given that information, that bumps VG.R up a rank, and, for the moment, puts Na'Vi as the Bubble Team that's "in" on just a direct 10 team invite list. That we're that far down for the year kind of tells us the problem that's been introduced.
But Team Empire, Na'Vi & Vega can all fight for that last spot at ESL One Frankfurt, unless Valve announces Invites on Monday. (They've generally done it the day before Open Qualifiers, but, well, it's Valve. They do whatever they want.) Though the Invite conditions are going to be different for each team. Empire needs to win outright. Vega can probably jump Na'Vi with a 2nd & Na'Vi not in the Top 4. Na'Vi should be fine with a Top 4 and neither of the other 2 making the Finals.
Na'Vi & Vega have a chance to jump Fnatic in an 8-team invite scenario, as well. But they need to win outright.
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There's justification for Valve to choose DC over CoL too. 2/5 of the team is 2 times major finalist and 1 time major winner. They are also currently the best placing NA team together with CoL in Manila.
Based on past invites, it often comes down to who Valve thinks has more potential in the actual TI. Chances are they will give it to DC who is a newer team and has much lesser time to gel together. CoL's performance in ESL One will be crucial for Valve to decide.
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no way eg doesnt get an invite. they're the defending champs. the na spot is definitely eg's. as for china, 3 spots seems just right considering 2 sea team got into top 6 for 2 majors.
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OP is spot on. Hope that DC, Wings and Empire also make it through. Secret and EG - no, please not. They better lose in the qualifiers. Bunch of spoiled drama kids.
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On June 13 2016 00:55 Kheve wrote: no way eg doesnt get an invite. they're the defending champs. the na spot is definitely eg's. as for china, 3 spots seems just right considering 2 sea team got into top 6 for 2 majors.
Agree , EG are invited 100% , when are they starting to invite the teams ? is it soon ?
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Well, Stage 1 of one of the CIS teams getting an invite is in place. Vega vs Na'Vi for a trip to the finals.
Though OG vs Liquid's winner should be the de facto favorite in the finals.
On the off chance they release the Invite information before I get back to this, since I'll miss the ESL One Frankfurt finals, Na'Vi winning outright should probably jump them into a Top 8 Invite Scenario. Likely at the cost of Fnatic.
Fnatic's only selling point is 2 consecutive 5th/6th at the Majors, but, aside from a 3rd/4th @ ESL One Manila, they've accomplished nothing else this year.
Granted, in an 8-team Invite scenario, I'd be a little surprised that it was 4 EU / 2 China /1 SEA / 1 NA, but that would be reflective on the quality of the regions this year. Though given we're down 3 tops teams from most of the year (Secret, EG & Ehome), it's hard to argue against that point.
If Vega won, they'd be looking at a spot in a 10-invite Scenario. Maybe.
These analysis are just so messy with so many podium finishes eaten up by EG, Secret & Ehome being gone.
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I think is gonna be like this : 1. OG 2. TL 3. Newbee 4. LGD 5. MVP 6. Fnatic 7. Navi 8. VGr 9. DC 10. Alliance
+ 1 Qualifer from each region + 2 Wild Cards like TI5
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Argh, damn it. I was thinking of even typing up 4 & 6 team invite scenarios. And they went with 6.
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As a note to myself the next time this comes up, Valve puts emphasis on the tournaments *after* Invites go out for the "recency slots" of the next set of Invites. Region Invite balance is also a top priority for them.
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