Because I don't have a clear idea of the format for this year's preliminary group stage, I can't make predictions based on those groups. Rather, this post will list out the team participating at TI 5 from best to worst. Because there are not many tournaments left until TI starts, and almost none of them contain TI playing teams, this ranking is pretty unlikely to change significantly.
Everyone please feel free to chime in and let me know what you think about your favorite or least favorite teams, as well as your own personal rankings. I'm trying to be as objective as I can, but at the same time some subjectivity is required.
All stats were taken from datdota and noxville's excellent datdota blog, which you can read here.
18. MVP.Phoenix
Second place team from the SEA qualifier, they have shown a level of dominance in SEA that is only bested by Fnatic and MVP.Hot6. That being said, MVP Phoenix is 19-45 against TI5 participants this year, and 2-5 against TI 5 opponents on 6.84 (though all games were against MVP Hot6). I don't see this team making it out of the wildcard rounds in almost any scenario.
17. MVP.Hot6
Sorry SEA, but you don't bring much to the table this year. While Hot6 looked great in the TI 5 qualifier and they are 6-4 against TI 5 participating teams, 5 of those wins come against MVP Phoenix. They are 9-10 this year against TI 5 participants, but against those come with padded stats against MVP Phoenix. They haven't played a single team at TI that isn't Fnatic or MVP Phoenix, and they don't have players that make you think they could achieve beyond their means.
16. Newbee
The returning champions have been a source of a lot of controversy surrounding their TI 5 invite, and rightfully so. Their record on the year is 123-101, second worst of the TI5 teams, and they've only won a single game since May 22nd against Butt 9. Their record against other TI 5 teams is 61-76 this year and 8-12 on this patch. In my opinion this team will be the worst team China fields this year, and China's second tier is already fairly mediocre.
15. CDEC
The Chinese qualifier runner ups, they have had the benefit of playing a lot more games than a lot of other teams on 6.84, with a 12-21 record against other TI 5 participants. While they have played well against other Chinese teams this year, they really lack in team coordination and are prone to some silly mistakes, particularly in late game situations. I just don't see them as a dangerous team and liken them somewhat to rattlesnake from TI3: a team that can dominate the tier 2 of their respective region but doesn't have much in the tank for higher competition.
14. Vega Squadron
The team that rode a hot spring all the way to a TI wildcard berth! It's good to see a bit of old talent mixed in with familiar faces on this team, and they've been playing pretty well recently. However, they hit a big wall against top level competition: they are 8-27 this year against TI5 participants, and 5-16 on this patch. However, they have only played against Empire, VP, and Na'Vi on that list recently, so it's not unexpected for them to struggle. That said, I see no way they can make it deep. They should qualify for the group stage but will end up in the bottom 6.
13. Team Archon
This team is full of hardened TI participants, and they have been playing pretty well in the American scene. They are 22-14 on this patch, but have lost every single game they've played on 6.84 against TI 5 participants (thanks coL)! They can be somewhat tough to rank given that complexity is the biggest enigma int he tournaments, but I think it's pretty clear that Archon isn't quite on their level. They have the individual talent to take them far and their support duo is pretty good. They win a lot of games with QoP, if you ban out QoP and SF they lose a lot of their firepower as a team. They should make it through the wildcards to the main event, but after that they'll probably end up in the bottom 6 of the table.
12. Na'Vi
The team that never misses TI! While saddled with a great dota 2 history, they have failed to meet anyone's expectations this year. They went 46-60 against TI 5 participants this year, and have a 12-14 record against TI teams on this patch (and that's with a 7-1 record against Vega in the TI 5 qualifiers, which puts them at 5-13 against the others. As much as one might like to believe in resurgences, this team is probably doomed to be mediocre. However, they do have some extremely talented players on their roster, so a return to form is not impossible. Just unlikely.
11. EHome
Old school powerhouse team with a lot to prove. They have some great individual talent in RotK and Lanm, but they have just been hammered by other TI teams with year with an overall record of 29-48 against them. Their stats for this patch have been padded by games against CDEC, but they have the potential to beat some top teams. That said, I just don't see them making major waves. Could finish in the top 8 if everything breaks right, but it's unlikely.
10. Complexity
This team is by far the hardest team to rank in the entire field. While many of you may not have watched the American Qualifiers, I highly suggest you do just to see how badly this team dominated them. I don't know what to do with these guys, and the roster has changed so much since they've complied their stats (and they haven't played any tournaments since). I wouldn't be surprised if they flop and end up in the bottom six, but I also wouldn't put a top 8 or even top 6 out of the question if they come out like they did against the american qualifier teams (seriously, go watch it; it's brutal). Noxville's ELO ratings have them at 7th in the world right now (!).
9. Virtus Pro
Now we're starting to get to teams that I think are a legitimate chance to make some noise. Virtus Pro has been 37-23 on this patch but only 19-18 against TI 5 invited teams. They seem to split evenly with teams like Fnatic while beating Na'Vi and Vega pretty regularly and they can beat Empire on a good day, but they struggle against the likes of Butt 9 / Secret / EG. I'd say this is a good spot for them and they could be a real threat for the top 6 if they get good draws.
8. Fnatic
This team should be so much better than it is. With remnants of the old TI3 favorites Orange eSports, they have the potential to really do well. That said, they have a terrible support duo, and have basically jammed 4 carries and one hard support on a single team. They always dominate early game but struggle to hold their advantage late. They also haven't been performing well on this patch with a 17-17 overall record and a 6-12 record against TI 5 invited teams on this patch. If they can figure out the patch, they have the raw player talent to top 8 and potentially make it as high as 4th, but I see that outcome as unlikely.
7. iG
Burning's new squad has had one of their worst years in recent memory: 98-102 against TI 5 teams this year, and 17-23 on this patch. Many of those games come at the hands of Secret, Empire, and LGD, but they have been problems none the less. iG is also having problems with this patch in general: they are 31-29 in this patch, which is second worst of all teams. Sadly for Burning, I don't expect a high finish from them this year. I don't think they have much chance to do better than this, but I also don't think it's really possible for them to do worse.
6. Butt 9
If TI was held on patch 6.83, they would be near the top of the ranking. Alas, they have struggled to adjust to the patch. They have a 20-16 record this patch, with a 14-14 record against other TI 5 teams. That said, they are certified Russian killers and I would bet on them to be any CIS team in the tournament. They are also 90-75 against TI 5 teams during the entire season, so if they can figure out their patch problems they could make it as high as 3rd place. I feel that top 8 is pretty assured, but anything higher might be a struggle for these guys.
5. VG
They have been sliding, and could slide right off the top 8 table with some bad luck and a few screw ups. VG is 134-84 against TI 5 teams this year (which is second best among all participants), but 20-25 on this patch. fy and Fenrir have been under performing compared to their expectations (it seems that immortal can in fact bleed), which puts them at 8th overall. Even with the slide, they have some of the best players in the world and thus can make a legitimate run at the TI5 crown with a return to form and some good luck. I think betting odds have favored VG too heavily, they are a terrible value bet at this point.
4. Empire
I personally believe that the true challengers for the TI 5 title start here. Empire has been on a role with 1st or 2nd places in each of their recent LAN tournaments, beating EG at MLG, LGD and VG at Mars Dota 2 League, and being 18-15 against TI 5 teams on this patch even with a terrible group stage at Mars Dota 2 League. They are not without weaknesses: they seem to have a lot of trouble with VP on certain days, and they can NEVER beat C9 or Secret. If Empire gets to feast on the Asian teams and doesn't have the unfortunate draw of getting Secret in the winner's bracket followed by C9 in the loser's bracket, then I expect them to slay Chinese, SEA, and American teams all the way to a top 4 finish. This is your CIS hope this year folks!
3. LGD Gaming
In my opinion, the best Chinese team this year. They have gotten hot at the right time, with a 25-18 record on this patch against TI 5 teams, which if you exclude coL and MVP Hot6 due to sample size puts them at second place behind Secret. They have been playing some great Dota 2, and they have some of the best individual talent on earth as well as probably the second best captain. This is the Chinese threat to the TI 5 title!
2. Evil Geniuses
Led by ppd, arguably the best captain in the world, they have been on fire since DAC with only a few hiccups in between. While only 22-16 on this patch, they are 18-14 against TI 5 teams on 6.84 and 86-59 against TI 5 teams on the year. While they are prone to bad games, they very rarely lose series to any team in tournaments. Assuming that the group stage makes EG play 14 or 15 games, they will be in the top two of the group stages. From there it's all about outplaying their opponents and solid drafting. Universe, Fear, and Aui are all top 3 players at their respective positions, so they are capable of winning games even when out drafted.
1. Team Secret
No contest. Multiple LAN victories in a row, 167-51 on the year, 36-9 on this patch, 35-9 against TI 5 teams (all bests if you discount coL's small sample size). This is the best team in the world up to this point, and they are potentially the largest favorite TI has ever had. If they don't get 1st place at TI it will be the single biggest upset in TI history, with the possible exception of Orange's run at TI 3. That's how fucking good they are.
Potential Upsets
1. Fnatic - Most potential in spite of terrible recent play. If they figure out the patch and get their support duo rolling, they have the individual talent to be top 4. The way they dominate games early and lose games late is pretty amazing to watch.
2. Complexity - They are the most mysterious TI team ever. ELO rankings all seem to love this team but with so few games played I think it's anyone's guess how good they actually are. They dominated the American qualifiers on a level not seen in any of the other qualifiers.
3. Virtus Pro - This ranking for them is an average. They have been shown to beat Empire and lose to MVP Phoenix, so who knows?
Hope you guys enjoyed this rather long read. Let me know what you think!
-MetalMercury