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EDIT: So the Season is over now. and so is this thread. i Added all finished Tournements and made a small top 10 for this season. I want to thank all of you who kept on checking the thread whenever i updated, and i hope you got some compendium points by following my prediction (which were 100% true for the invitiations *yay*). I will most likely make a new thread in about two months, for the season fall invites and ti5 invites, where i will completely guess their invitiaion method and hopefully will be right again XD. Cu until then. Qody
Hello my name is Qody. I am a long time lurker here and decided to make my first post today.
Since TI4 concluded I collected tournament results because i wanted to see the most successful teams this season.
I chose the invited teams based on last years Invitation method. I will try to keep this blog updated. Thanks for reading.
Qody
EDIT:
TI4 Invitation based on the system I use.
+ Show Spoiler +
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Good post. Well, Na'Vi is not that far from an invite like i initially thought. But they still need to win a tournament to be safe.
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Sanya12364 Posts
On January 19 2015 04:05 Qody wrote: I chose the invited teams based on last years Invitation method. I will try to keep this blog updated. Thanks for reading.
Qody Can you show last year's invitation method applied on last year's data?
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Will C9 really be counted as an NA team if they only have 1 NA player? Or is it based off of the organization's HQ?
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Will follow this post, pls keep updating thanks!
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On January 19 2015 04:51 ZeaL. wrote: Will C9 really be counted as an NA team if they only have 1 NA player? Or is it based off of the organization's HQ?
pretty sure C9 will be EU for TI5 cause as valve has said its the players not the organization that matters for these things.
I agree with everything else though, very easy to understand OP
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On January 19 2015 04:46 TanGeng wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2015 04:05 Qody wrote: I chose the invited teams based on last years Invitation method. I will try to keep this blog updated. Thanks for reading.
Qody Can you show last year's invitation method applied on last year's data?
I meant by that, that i took the same amount of invites per region like last year.
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but you are mistaken it is 4 eu/cis 4 china 1 sea 1 am +previous ti winner
which means c9 was counted as eu last year aswell
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On January 19 2015 06:00 teddyoojo wrote: but you are mistaken it is 4 eu/cis 4 china 1 sea 1 am +previous ti winner
which means c9 was counted as eu last year aswell
Well then it would be 5 eu 4 cn 1 am and 1 sea invite and the predicted teams would be still the same.
I also added the ti4 Invitation prediction based on my system.
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no this year it would be 5cn 4 eu
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An interesting issue will be if Alliance continues to perform badly. Will they get invited this time anyhow? Will be an important precedent. No matter how much I want them there it would be bad for the tournament if they don't improve.
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On January 19 2015 07:09 Yurie wrote: An interesting issue will be if Alliance continues to perform badly. Will they get invited this time anyhow? Will be an important precedent. No matter how much I want them there it would be bad for the tournament if they don't improve.
of course not, why would you invite someone who perform badly ? just because they won one time ? so at TI11 we dont invite the best teams, just the previously winners ?
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28057 Posts
Yeah I can't see Alliance getting an invite if they don't deserve it. Maybe if it was TI4 that they won and not TI3?
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United States13143 Posts
On January 19 2015 07:09 Yurie wrote: An interesting issue will be if Alliance continues to perform badly. Will they get invited this time anyhow? Will be an important precedent. No matter how much I want them there it would be bad for the tournament if they don't improve. Unless there is a drastic improvement in their performance, Alliance should not get a direct invite. They should get a qualifier invite, since they actually had a decent(but not great) third quarter of 2014 and basically everyone got a qualifier invite last time, but definitely not a direct invite.
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Great first post, well researched
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C9 listed under AM is weird but it doesn't change anything really, those look like the teams that should go. Maybe you could swap out NAVI/VP for IG/CDEC (who I feel deserves an invite over IG at this point) like teddy said. Interesting seeing it all written out like this, look forward to how close it gets
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Will be wierd if alot of the topplayers from last year arent present as a player.
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I don't see Big God on that list.
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Nice to see this list, but I think TI4 results should be included, as they surely will matter a lot in terms for the invitations.
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opterown
Australia54650 Posts
On January 19 2015 14:54 Raithed wrote: I don't see Big God on that list. they haven't really done much at all
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Well if everyone is so adamant on invites being purely based off merit and skill, does America or SEA really deserve an invite over the 5th best Euro/Chinese team?
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sea does not deserve an invite (because that would mean they get 2 slots), they deserve 1 through a qualifier its harder for na since eg does deserve an invite(as it stands right now) but its very hard to give a qualifier for another na team to take a slot in ti
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On January 20 2015 00:25 hariooo wrote: Well if everyone is so adamant on invites being purely based off merit and skill, does America or SEA really deserve an invite over the 5th best Euro/Chinese team?
EG (and possibly C9, depending on whether you count as AM or EU) has been more dominant the past year than any 5th EU team could be. SEA does not deserve an invite.
C9 as EU: 1AM, 5EU 5CN C9 as AM: 2AM 4EU, 5CN
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Valve invites players not teams. Not sure that the old EG is at all relevant to the new EG.
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On January 20 2015 01:15 hariooo wrote: Valve invites players not teams. Not sure that the old EG is at all relevant to the new EG.
not quite right.
Yes the invites are sent to players, not teams, but they don't just randomly invite players and hope that they invite 5 players of 1 team.
The look at the performance of teams over the last x months, then sent invites to the players of those teams. Even if 1 of the team members is not performing as well, it'sthe whole team that gets an invite
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Seeing C9 under AM irks me, but other than that, the list looks cool.
It would be nice to see a monthly (or bi-monthly) graphical representation of "team performances" change up TI5 invites so we get a good guess on which time frame Valve focuses on when they give out TI invites.
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On January 20 2015 01:15 hariooo wrote: Valve invites players not teams. Not sure that the old EG is at all relevant to the new EG.
That's not true, as pointed out before. If that were true, not a single T1 team would have made any changes right now. Keeping the majority of your players (like TS, EG, C9 did) should be more than sufficient to get the team invite. So yup, EG is still as relevant as before.
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On January 19 2015 18:23 Mafe wrote: Nice to see this list, but I think TI4 results should be included, as they surely will matter a lot in terms for the invitations. Since the majority of those teams have changed rosters I don't see why it would outside of NB.
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On January 20 2015 02:01 zdfgucker wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2015 01:15 hariooo wrote: Valve invites players not teams. Not sure that the old EG is at all relevant to the new EG. That's not true, as pointed out before. If that were true, not a single T1 team would have made any changes right now. Keeping the majority of your players (like TS, EG, C9 did) should be more than sufficient to get the team invite. So yup, EG is still as relevant as before.
C9 has 2/5 since TI4.
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Nice first post, welcome ^_^
I've always wondered if there are some private organized talks for invited organizations, maybe a 'donation' made for a secured invite or so.
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We'll soon see how the different scenes compare, but my hunch is that they're as far apart as they've ever been. China > EU > NA. Thankfully EU still has one exceptional team, and hopefully some more will find their stride before TI5. I doubt we will have more EU invites than CN, though.
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On January 20 2015 00:25 hariooo wrote: Well if everyone is so adamant on invites being purely based off merit and skill, does America or SEA really deserve an invite over the 5th best Euro/Chinese team? Who knows what anyone "deserves"? It's called the International, some type of invites based on regional representation is expected.
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On January 19 2015 19:13 opterown wrote:they haven't really done much at all Also there are rumors that some of their players are going back to "real" teams.
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On January 20 2015 00:56 teddyoojo wrote: sea does not deserve an invite (because that would mean they get 2 slots), they deserve 1 through a qualifier its harder for na since eg does deserve an invite(as it stands right now) but its very hard to give a qualifier for another na team to take a slot in ti Historically Valve has tried to give every region at least one direct invite, and the difference between the 6th European team and the 2nd NA/SEA team is minimal--both will probably end up in the bottom 4 (only China has ever had a qualifier team make it to the top 8 iirc, LGD in TI4 and Tongfu in TI2). A split that's like 5 China, 5 EU, 1 America, 0 SEA, 1 qualifier from each, 1 wildcard would probably oversaturate the tournament with EU teams which historically mostly end up in the bottom 8.
If any region deserves to have possibly nearly half the teams at the tournament, it's probably China who could have something like Newbee, VG, IG, LGD, CDEC, EHOME, +1 (Tongfu/HGT). Realistically, that +1 will probably be replaced with Rave or w/e the second best SEA team is at the time.
On January 20 2015 00:25 hariooo wrote: Well if everyone is so adamant on invites being purely based off merit and skill, does America or SEA really deserve an invite over the 5th best Euro/Chinese team? Based on Starladder, MVP Phoenix probably deserves an invite over Na'vi.
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I agree this list looks pretty much how everyone would judge it, but the tournaments in the coming months will probably be weighted a bit more than the ones right after TI4. Now the fun part will be predicting how this list might change. Will we actually see someone like HR or PR break into the big name club or will it stay as it is?
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They wont because if they do, they loose some players again like with vanskor and fng. Thats why empire or PR dont seem teams that can win a ti, as alot of players prefer to play on a mediocre navi then on a red hot empire or PR roster.
Imo opinion its not about results, its about the teamowners having enough money or other stuff to keep a team together long enough, even against brutal powerhouses (moneywise) like navi, EG, teamsecret etc.
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UPDATE
Added Esportal Open Tournament 1, Esportal Invitational Tournament 1 and a second prediction variant. Changed C9 to Europe. Merged Team Malaysia with G Guard and Team Immunity with Can't Say Wips
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I actually wouldn't be surprised if South America gets their own qualifier or at least have the AM qualifier be split up. They can't really compete fairly outside of LAN.
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As of right now VG Newbee LGD C9 Secret iG EG Navi deserves a invite. The top 8 teams from TI 4 plus Secret. Any team that does well in the upcoming DAC will get direct invited. CDEC Ehome BigGod etc. Also CIS teams will get a direct invite. Empire/Polar/VP. 1 sea invite, probably will be rave/mvp. I honestly cant think of any other good candidate for a direct invite unless they go on to win a few tournament. Maybe NA will get a direct invite beside EG? But i doubt it.
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UPDATE
Added Esportal Open Tournament 2, Hitbox Obutto Chamionship 1 and Alienware Area 51 Dota 2 Cup.
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On January 24 2015 02:56 Eternalobi wrote: As of right now VG Newbee LGD C9 Secret iG EG Navi deserves a invite. The top 8 teams from TI 4 plus Secret. Any team that does well in the upcoming DAC will get direct invited. CDEC Ehome BigGod etc. Also CIS teams will get a direct invite. Empire/Polar/VP. 1 sea invite, probably will be rave/mvp. I honestly cant think of any other good candidate for a direct invite unless they go on to win a few tournament. Maybe NA will get a direct invite beside EG? But i doubt it.
iG and Na'vi really don't deserve any direct invites in any tournament right now.
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On January 24 2015 02:56 Eternalobi wrote: As of right now VG Newbee LGD C9 Secret iG EG Navi deserves a invite. The top 8 teams from TI 4 plus Secret. Any team that does well in the upcoming DAC will get direct invited. CDEC Ehome BigGod etc. Also CIS teams will get a direct invite. Empire/Polar/VP. 1 sea invite, probably will be rave/mvp. I honestly cant think of any other good candidate for a direct invite unless they go on to win a few tournament. Maybe NA will get a direct invite beside EG? But i doubt it.
now tell me why Navi and IG deserves an invite
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UPDATE
Added joinDota Master XV and Dota Regions 2
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UPDATE
Added Bridon Open Cup
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Why are you not adding Big God to the chinese teams?
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On February 01 2015 01:11 DV G wrote: Why are you not adding Big God to the chinese teams?
I will add them as soon as they earn Points.
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Interesting stuff.
SEA invites are gonna have a low prediction accuracy rate; KR tournament prize pools >>> SEA prize pools, plus KR teams partcipate in SEA tournaments but not vice versa. =d Then again with the rate MVP's been improving this probably won't matter (assuming Valve only gives 1 invite to the SEA+KR 'region')
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On February 02 2015 02:08 ShootAnonymous wrote: Interesting stuff.
SEA invites are gonna have a low prediction accuracy rate; KR tournament prize pools >>> SEA prize pools, plus KR teams partcipate in SEA tournaments but not vice versa. =d Then again with the rate MVP's been improving this probably won't matter (assuming Valve only gives 1 invite to the SEA+KR 'region')
Thats not really true anymore. Both Kr only tournaments were tier3 while OK Dota one was Tier 2.
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UPDATE
Added National Esport Open 2014
Added Tier S Tournaments for 1mil$+ pricepools.
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I think the biggest mystery is whether Newbee will get a direct invite even though they are trash without xiao8. They will probably just disband though and solve that problem.
After DAC we should have a much clearer picture. Rave qualifying for the main event (and mvp phoenix going 1-14) is a big boost for them.
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United States13143 Posts
They had decent-to-good results in the tournaments leading up to DAC. Their crashing and burning at the tournament is a big surprise.
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I think newbee aint trash without xiao8, its just that they didnt doto seriously enough since ti I bet if they scrimmed for 1 more month with rabbit they will be close to ti form. And if they are not they will aquire the players that will grant them an invite, its that simple.
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UPDATE
Changed Tier3 to allow Monthly Tournements.
Added Gigabyte Challenge 7-11, Eizo Cup 12,13, MSI Dragon Battle 1 and Dota 2 Asia Championship.
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UPDATE
Added Deadly Gaming Cup 1, MPGL Season 6, Moscow Cyber Stadium, Golden Esports League 2, Copa Dilecom 2014, XMA X5 Mega Arena.
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UPDATE
Added Gigabyte Challenge 12 and Eizo Cup 14
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UPDATE
Added Esportal Invitational Tournament 2 and Dota 2 Thai Championship.
Changed Team Tinker aka Waterboys to AM.
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UPDATE
Added Canada Cup 4, joinDota Masters XVI, MSI Dragon Battle 2 and GG League Season 2
Added Qualifier Predictions
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UPDATE
Added Iron Trophy Europe, MSI Dragon Battle #2, The Prime Major, Esportal Invitational 3, CEVO 5, Gemplay Challenger 2, Gigabyte Windforce Cup, Pro Series X and Pro Series XI.
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UPDATE
Added MSI Dragon Batlle 3, Hitbox Obutto 2, CEVO 6 and Hitbox Dota 2 EU Championship
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UPDATE
Added Eizo Cup #15 and Major All Stars.
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can it be that you mixed a couple of ehome teams together for the ehome malaysia score?
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On March 23 2015 13:39 hfglgg wrote: can it be that you mixed a couple of ehome teams together for the ehome malaysia score?
The Ehome malaysia score is based of the 3 player core that made the teams: Team Malaysia, the old G Guard and now Ehome Malaysia.
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UPDATE
Added GEST Sea Cup, Gigabyte Challenge 13 and Corsair Gaming Arena.
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UPDATE
Added MSI Dragon Battle 4, Inside Dota 2 Challenge and joinDota MLG Pro League 1.
Tweaked a bit with the point values.
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Interesting Qody. The games between HR and navi are alot more intense to watch eversince i follow this ti invite blog of yours
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Thanks that you appreciate it. I'm really looking forward to Valve announcing the invites and qualifiers, and seeing how wrong i was with my predictions.
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I am just wondering how valve will organize the tournament and whether or not the format will change because the scene has become extremely volatile.
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gonna be interesting to see if they invite Newbee, i mean they re champions so it would be awkward if they dont get one, but man they suck...
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On April 17 2015 20:39 Geo.Rion wrote: gonna be interesting to see if they invite Newbee, i mean they re champions so it would be awkward if they dont get one, but man they suck...
Its not only that they are last years champions, but they also won 4 chinese tournements this season. They are the 2nd most earning team in China this season.
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NB have been terrible for a while now though and also had a roster change. Makes me wonder how much valve takes roster changes into account when looking at the results (pre-post changes). Feels like RAVE need another good performance to overtake MY not just in points but the eyeball test. Slumping at the wrong time
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UPDATE
Added Esportal Open Tournament 3, VPGame Pro League and Gigabyte Challenge #14.
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UPDATE
Added Hitbox Dota 2 EU Championship 2, Romanian Dota 2 League and Starladder 12.
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UPDATE
Added Corsair Gaming Arena 2, Insomnia 52 Asus Rog Dota Cup, Elpadrinoth American Cup, MPGL Season 7 Leg 1.
Reduced the Invited Teams to 10.
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UPDATE
Added Inside Dota 2 Asia Challenge, ASUS ROG Play It Cool Invitational and Esportal Invitational Tournement 4.
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Wow 100% true. All correctly calculated. Congrats m8!
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UPDATE
Added Dota 2 Champions League 5, MPGL Season 7 Final, Red Bull Battle Grounds, MSI Dragon Battle 5, Pretty Pudge's Pokaljakt and XMA X5 Mega Arena 2015.
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Update
Added The International 5 EU Open Qualifier, The International 5 NA Open Qualifier, The International 5 SEA Open Qualifier, The International 5 CH Open Qualifier, Yard G2A Fest ep. 1 and The Summit 3
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UPDATE
Added I-League 3, Canada Cup 5, MarsTV Dota 2 Chinese League, Corsair Gaming Arena 3, Gigabyte Challenge #15, AOC & Rapoo Masters Championships and Uprise Champions Cup Season 2.
Marked newly added Tournements in the first Spreadsheet.
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UPDATE
Added Pro Series XII, Esportal Open Tournement 4, The International 5 EU Main Qualifier, The International 5 NA Main Qualifier, The International 5 SEA Main Qualifier and The International 5 CH Main Qualifier.
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UPDATE
Added joinDota MLG Pro League 2, MarsTV Dota 2 League, WCA 2015 American Qualifiers and FirstGameTV Dota 2 Cup.
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UPDATE
Added Razer Think Fast Cup 2, Dreamleague 3, ECL 2015 The Spring, Sudamerican Master 2, MSI Dragon Battle 6 and Esport SM 2015.
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UPDATE
Added ESL One Frankfurt and Mountain Trail Challenge.
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UPDATE
Added MPGL Season 7 Leg 2, Corsair Gaming Arena 4, Gigabyte Challenge #16, ProDota Cup, Awqa League and E-Sport Bets Showmatch.
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UPDATE
Added Esportal Dota 2 League, ASUS Game Show Invitational, WCA 2015 Chinese Qualifiers and ESCC 2015.
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Update
Final Edit made to the OP.
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